Daily Papers

Existing Vision-Language Navigation (VLN) methods primarily focus on single-stage navigation, limiting their effectiveness in multi-stage and long-horizon tasks within complex and dynamic environments. To address these limitations, we propose a novel VLN task, named Long-Horizon Vision-Language Navigation (LH-VLN), which emphasizes long-term planning and decision consistency across consecutive subtasks. Furthermore, to support LH-VLN, we develop an automated data generation platform NavGen, which constructs datasets with complex task structures and improves data utility through a bidirectional, multi-granularity generation approach. To accurately evaluate complex tasks, we construct the Long-Horizon Planning and Reasoning in VLN (LHPR-VLN) benchmark consisting of 3,260 tasks with an average of 150 task steps, serving as the first dataset specifically designed for the long-horizon vision-language navigation task. Furthermore, we propose Independent Success Rate (ISR), Conditional Success Rate (CSR), and CSR weight by Ground Truth (CGT) metrics, to provide fine-grained assessments of task completion. To improve model adaptability in complex tasks, we propose a novel Multi-Granularity Dynamic Memory (MGDM) module that integrates short-term memory blurring with long-term memory retrieval to enable flexible navigation in dynamic environments. Our platform, benchmark and method supply LH-VLN with a robust data generation pipeline, comprehensive model evaluation dataset, reasonable metrics, and a novel VLN model, establishing a foundational framework for advancing LH-VLN.

The rise of Omni-modal Large Language Models (OLLMs), which integrate visual and auditory processing with text, necessitates robust safety evaluations to mitigate harmful outputs. However, no dedicated benchmarks currently exist for OLLMs, and prior benchmarks designed for other LLMs lack the ability to assess safety performance under audio-visual joint inputs or cross-modal safety consistency. To fill this gap, we introduce Omni-SafetyBench, the first comprehensive parallel benchmark for OLLM safety evaluation, featuring 24 modality combinations and variations with 972 samples each, including dedicated audio-visual harm cases. Considering OLLMs' comprehension challenges with complex omni-modal inputs and the need for cross-modal consistency evaluation, we propose tailored metrics: a Safety-score based on conditional Attack Success Rate (C-ASR) and Refusal Rate (C-RR) to account for comprehension failures, and a Cross-Modal Safety Consistency Score (CMSC-score) to measure consistency across modalities. Evaluating 6 open-source and 4 closed-source OLLMs reveals critical vulnerabilities: (1) no model excels in both overall safety and consistency, with only 3 models achieving over 0.6 in both metrics and top performer scoring around 0.8; (2) safety defenses weaken with complex inputs, especially audio-visual joints; (3) severe weaknesses persist, with some models scoring as low as 0.14 on specific modalities. Our benchmark and metrics highlight urgent needs for enhanced OLLM safety, providing a foundation for future improvements.

Conditional image generation enhances text-to-image synthesis with structural, spatial, or stylistic priors, but current methods face challenges in handling conflicts between sources. These include 1) input-level conflicts, where the conditioning image contradicts the text prompt, and 2) model-bias conflicts, where generative biases disrupt alignment even when conditions match the text. Addressing these conflicts requires nuanced solutions, which standard supervised fine-tuning struggles to provide. Preference-based optimization techniques like Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) show promise but are limited by gradient entanglement between text and condition signals and lack disentangled training data for multi-constraint tasks. To overcome this, we propose a bidirectionally decoupled DPO framework (BideDPO). Our method creates two disentangled preference pairs-one for the condition and one for the text-to reduce gradient entanglement. The influence of pairs is managed using an Adaptive Loss Balancing strategy for balanced optimization. We introduce an automated data pipeline to sample model outputs and generate conflict-aware data. This process is embedded in an iterative optimization strategy that refines both the model and the data. We construct a DualAlign benchmark to evaluate conflict resolution between text and condition. Experiments show BideDPO significantly improves text success rates (e.g., +35%) and condition adherence. We also validate our approach using the COCO dataset. Project Pages: https://limuloo.github.io/BideDPO/.

Model inversion (MI) attacks have raised increasing concerns about privacy, which can reconstruct training data from public models. Indeed, MI attacks can be formalized as an optimization problem that seeks private data in a certain space. Recent MI attacks leverage a generative adversarial network (GAN) as an image prior to narrow the search space, and can successfully reconstruct even the high-dimensional data (e.g., face images). However, these generative MI attacks do not fully exploit the potential capabilities of the target model, still leading to a vague and coupled search space, i.e., different classes of images are coupled in the search space. Besides, the widely used cross-entropy loss in these attacks suffers from gradient vanishing. To address these problems, we propose Pseudo Label-Guided MI (PLG-MI) attack via conditional GAN (cGAN). At first, a top-n selection strategy is proposed to provide pseudo-labels for public data, and use pseudo-labels to guide the training of the cGAN. In this way, the search space is decoupled for different classes of images. Then a max-margin loss is introduced to improve the search process on the subspace of a target class. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our PLG-MI attack significantly improves the attack success rate and visual quality for various datasets and models, notably, 2~3 times better than state-of-the-art attacks under large distributional shifts. Our code is available at: https://github.com/LetheSec/PLG-MI-Attack.

Adversarial patch attacks pose a severe threat to deep neural networks, yet most existing approaches rely on unrealistic white-box assumptions, untargeted objectives, or produce visually conspicuous patches that limit real-world applicability. In this work, we introduce a novel framework for fully controllable adversarial patch generation, where the attacker can freely choose both the input image x and the target class y target, thereby dictating the exact misclassification outcome. Our method combines a generative U-Net design with Grad-CAM-guided patch placement, enabling semantic-aware localization that maximizes attack effectiveness while preserving visual realism. Extensive experiments across convolutional networks (DenseNet-121, ResNet-50) and vision transformers (ViT-B/16, Swin-B/16, among others) demonstrate that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance across all settings, with attack success rates (ASR) and target-class success (TCS) consistently exceeding 99%. Importantly, we show that our method not only outperforms prior white-box attacks and untargeted baselines, but also surpasses existing non-realistic approaches that produce detectable artifacts. By simultaneously ensuring realism, targeted control, and black-box applicability-the three most challenging dimensions of patch-based attacks-our framework establishes a new benchmark for adversarial robustness research, bridging the gap between theoretical attack strength and practical stealthiness.

We present Skill Transformer, an approach for solving long-horizon robotic tasks by combining conditional sequence modeling and skill modularity. Conditioned on egocentric and proprioceptive observations of a robot, Skill Transformer is trained end-to-end to predict both a high-level skill (e.g., navigation, picking, placing), and a whole-body low-level action (e.g., base and arm motion), using a transformer architecture and demonstration trajectories that solve the full task. It retains the composability and modularity of the overall task through a skill predictor module while reasoning about low-level actions and avoiding hand-off errors, common in modular approaches. We test Skill Transformer on an embodied rearrangement benchmark and find it performs robust task planning and low-level control in new scenarios, achieving a 2.5x higher success rate than baselines in hard rearrangement problems.

Generalizable dexterous grasping with suitable grasp types is a fundamental skill for intelligent robots. Developing such skills requires a large-scale and high-quality dataset that covers numerous grasp types (i.e., at least those categorized by the GRASP taxonomy), but collecting such data is extremely challenging. Existing automatic grasp synthesis methods are often limited to specific grasp types or object categories, hindering scalability. This work proposes an efficient pipeline capable of synthesizing contact-rich, penetration-free, and physically plausible grasps for any grasp type, object, and articulated hand. Starting from a single human-annotated template for each hand and grasp type, our pipeline tackles the complicated synthesis problem with two stages: optimize the object to fit the hand template first, and then locally refine the hand to fit the object in simulation. To validate the synthesized grasps, we introduce a contact-aware control strategy that allows the hand to apply the appropriate force at each contact point to the object. Those validated grasps can also be used as new grasp templates to facilitate future synthesis. Experiments show that our method significantly outperforms previous type-unaware grasp synthesis baselines in simulation. Using our algorithm, we construct a dataset containing 10.7k objects and 9.5M grasps, covering 31 grasp types in the GRASP taxonomy. Finally, we train a type-conditional generative model that successfully performs the desired grasp type from single-view object point clouds, achieving an 82.3% success rate in real-world experiments. Project page: https://pku-epic.github.io/Dexonomy.

Visual navigation, a fundamental challenge in mobile robotics, demands versatile policies to handle diverse environments. Classical methods leverage geometric solutions to minimize specific costs, offering adaptability to new scenarios but are prone to system errors due to their multi-modular design and reliance on hand-crafted rules. Learning-based methods, while achieving high planning success rates, face difficulties in generalizing to unseen environments beyond the training data and often require extensive training. To address these limitations, we propose a hybrid approach that combines the strengths of learning-based methods and classical approaches for RGB-only visual navigation. Our method first trains a conditional diffusion model on diverse path-RGB observation pairs. During inference, it integrates the gradients of differentiable scene-specific and task-level costs, guiding the diffusion model to generate valid paths that meet the constraints. This approach alleviates the need for retraining, offering a plug-and-play solution. Extensive experiments in both indoor and outdoor settings, across simulated and real-world scenarios, demonstrate zero-shot transfer capability of our approach, achieving higher success rates and fewer collisions compared to baseline methods. Code will be released at https://github.com/SYSU-RoboticsLab/NaviD.

While GUI agents have shown impressive capabilities in common computer-use tasks such as OSWorld, current benchmarks mainly focus on isolated and single-application tasks. This overlooks a critical real-world requirement of coordinating across multiple applications to accomplish complex profession-specific workflows. To bridge this gap, we present a computer-use benchmark in cross-application workflows, named WindowsWorld, designed to systematically assess GUI Agents on complex multi-step tasks that mirror real-world professional activities. Our methodology uses a multi-agent framework steered by 16 occupations to generate four difficulty-level tasks with intermediate inspection, which are then refined by human review and executed in a simulated environment. The resulting benchmark contains 181 tasks with an average of 5.0 sub-goals across 17 common desktop applications, of which 78% are inherently multi-application. Experimental results of leading large models and agents show that: 1) All computer-use agents perform poorly on multi-application tasks (< 21% success rate), far below the performance of simple single-app tasks; 2) They largely fail at tasks requiring conditional judgment and reasoning across geq 3 applications, stalling at early sub-goals; 3) Low execution efficiency, where tasks often fail despite far exceeding human step limits. Code, benchmark data, and evaluation resources are available at github.com/HITsz-TMG/WindowsWorld.

Strategic dialogue requires agents to execute distinct dialogue acts, for which belief estimation is essential. While prior work often estimates beliefs accurately, it lacks a principled mechanism to use those beliefs during generation. We bridge this gap by first formalizing two core acts Adversarial and Alignment, and by operationalizing them via probabilistic constraints on what an agent may generate. We instantiate this idea in BEDA, a framework that consists of the world set, the belief estimator for belief estimation, and the conditional generator that selects acts and realizes utterances consistent with the inferred beliefs. Across three settings, Conditional Keeper Burglar (CKBG, adversarial), Mutual Friends (MF, cooperative), and CaSiNo (negotiation), BEDA consistently outperforms strong baselines: on CKBG it improves success rate by at least 5.0 points across backbones and by 20.6 points with GPT-4.1-nano; on Mutual Friends it achieves an average improvement of 9.3 points; and on CaSiNo it achieves the optimal deal relative to all baselines. These results indicate that casting belief estimation as constraints provides a simple, general mechanism for reliable strategic dialogue.

This paper introduces diffusion protein language model (DPLM), a versatile protein language model that demonstrates strong generative and predictive capabilities for protein sequences. We first pre-train scalable DPLMs from evolutionary-scale protein sequences within a generative self-supervised discrete diffusion probabilistic framework, which generalizes language modeling for proteins in a principled way. After pre-training, DPLM exhibits the ability to generate structurally plausible, novel, and diverse protein sequences for unconditional generation. We further demonstrate the proposed diffusion generative pre-training makes DPLM possess a better understanding of proteins, making it a superior representation learner, which can be fine-tuned for various predictive tasks, comparing favorably to ESM2 (Lin et al., 2022). Moreover, DPLM can be tailored for various needs, which showcases its prowess of conditional generation in several ways: (1) conditioning on partial peptide sequences, e.g., generating scaffolds for functional motifs with high success rate; (2) incorporating other modalities as conditioner, e.g., structure-conditioned generation for inverse folding; and (3) steering sequence generation towards desired properties, e.g., satisfying specified secondary structures, through a plug-and-play classifier guidance. Code is released at https://github.com/bytedance/dplm.

The widespread use of Text-to-Image (T2I) models in content generation requires careful examination of their safety, including their robustness to adversarial attacks. Despite extensive research on adversarial attacks, the reasons for their effectiveness remain underexplored. This paper presents an empirical study on adversarial attacks against T2I models, focusing on analyzing factors associated with attack success rates (ASR). We introduce a new attack objective - entity swapping using adversarial suffixes and two gradient-based attack algorithms. Human and automatic evaluations reveal the asymmetric nature of ASRs on entity swap: for example, it is easier to replace "human" with "robot" in the prompt "a human dancing in the rain." with an adversarial suffix, but the reverse replacement is significantly harder. We further propose probing metrics to establish indicative signals from the model's beliefs to the adversarial ASR. We identify conditions that result in a success probability of 60% for adversarial attacks and others where this likelihood drops below 5%.

Research on autonomous surgery has largely focused on simple task automation in controlled environments. However, real-world surgical applications demand dexterous manipulation over extended durations and generalization to the inherent variability of human tissue. These challenges remain difficult to address using existing logic-based or conventional end-to-end learning approaches. To address this gap, we propose a hierarchical framework for performing dexterous, long-horizon surgical steps. Our approach utilizes a high-level policy for task planning and a low-level policy for generating robot trajectories. The high-level planner plans in language space, generating task-level or corrective instructions that guide the robot through the long-horizon steps and correct for the low-level policy's errors. We validate our framework through ex vivo experiments on cholecystectomy, a commonly-practiced minimally invasive procedure, and conduct ablation studies to evaluate key components of the system. Our method achieves a 100\% success rate across eight unseen ex vivo gallbladders, operating fully autonomously without human intervention. This work demonstrates step-level autonomy in a surgical procedure, marking a milestone toward clinical deployment of autonomous surgical systems.

Specifying robotic manipulation tasks in a manner that is both expressive and precise remains a central challenge. While visual goals provide a compact and unambiguous task specification, existing goal-conditioned policies often struggle with long-horizon manipulation due to their reliance on single-step action prediction without explicit modeling of task progress. We propose Act2Goal, a general goal-conditioned manipulation policy that integrates a goal-conditioned visual world model with multi-scale temporal control. Given a current observation and a target visual goal, the world model generates a plausible sequence of intermediate visual states that captures long-horizon structure. To translate this visual plan into robust execution, we introduce Multi-Scale Temporal Hashing (MSTH), which decomposes the imagined trajectory into dense proximal frames for fine-grained closed-loop control and sparse distal frames that anchor global task consistency. The policy couples these representations with motor control through end-to-end cross-attention, enabling coherent long-horizon behavior while remaining reactive to local disturbances. Act2Goal achieves strong zero-shot generalization to novel objects, spatial layouts, and environments. We further enable reward-free online adaptation through hindsight goal relabeling with LoRA-based finetuning, allowing rapid autonomous improvement without external supervision. Real-robot experiments demonstrate that Act2Goal improves success rates from 30% to 90% on challenging out-of-distribution tasks within minutes of autonomous interaction, validating that goal-conditioned world models with multi-scale temporal control provide structured guidance necessary for robust long-horizon manipulation. Project page: https://act2goal.github.io/

Despite their impressive capabilities, current Text-to-Image (T2I) models remain prone to generating unsafe and toxic content. While activation steering offers a promising inference-time intervention, we observe that linear activation steering frequently degrades image quality when applied to benign prompts. To address this trade-off, we first construct SafeSteerDataset, a contrastive dataset containing 2300 safe and unsafe prompt pairs with high cosine similarity. Leveraging this data, we propose Conditioned Activation Transport (CAT), a framework that employs a geometry-based conditioning mechanism and nonlinear transport maps. By conditioning transport maps to activate only within unsafe activation regions, we minimize interference with benign queries. We validate our approach on two state-of-the-art architectures: Z-Image and Infinity. Experiments demonstrate that CAT generalizes effectively across these backbones, significantly reducing Attack Success Rate while maintaining image fidelity compared to unsteered generations. Warning: This paper contains potentially offensive text and images.

Existing benchmarks for tool-using LLM agents primarily report single-run success rates and miss reliability properties required in production. We introduce ReliabilityBench, a benchmark for evaluating agent reliability across three dimensions: (i) consistency under repeated execution using pass^k, (ii) robustness to semantically equivalent task perturbations at intensity ε, and (iii) fault tolerance under controlled tool/API failures at intensity λ. ReliabilityBench contributes a unified reliability surface R(k,ε,λ), action metamorphic relations that define correctness via end-state equivalence rather than text similarity, and a chaos-engineering-style fault injection framework (timeouts, rate limits, partial responses, schema drift). We evaluate two models (Gemini 2.0 Flash, GPT-4o) and two agent architectures (ReAct, Reflexion) across four domains (scheduling, travel, customer support, e-commerce) over 1,280 episodes. Perturbations alone reduce success from 96.9% at ε=0 to 88.1% at ε=0.2. Rate limiting is the most damaging fault in ablations. ReAct is more robust than Reflexion under combined stress, and Gemini 2.0 Flash achieves comparable reliability to GPT-4o at much lower cost. ReliabilityBench provides a systematic framework for assessing production readiness of LLM agents.

Generative world models (WMs) are increasingly used to synthesize controllable, sensor-conditioned driving videos, yet their reliance on physical priors exposes novel attack surfaces. In this paper, we present Physical-Conditioned World Model Attack (PhysCond-WMA), the first white-box world model attack that perturbs physical-condition channels, such as HDMap embeddings and 3D-box features, to induce semantic, logic, or decision-level distortion while preserving perceptual fidelity. PhysCond-WMA is optimized in two stages: (1) a quality-preserving guidance stage that constrains reverse-diffusion loss below a calibrated threshold, and (2) a momentum-guided denoising stage that accumulates target-aligned gradients along the denoising trajectory for stable, temporally coherent semantic shifts. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that our approach remains effective while increasing FID by about 9% on average and FVD by about 3.9% on average. Under the targeted attack setting, the attack success rate (ASR) reaches 0.55. Downstream studies further show tangible risk, which using attacked videos for training decreases 3D detection performance by about 4%, and worsens open-loop planning performance by about 20%. These findings has for the first time revealed and quantified security vulnerabilities in generative world models, driving more comprehensive security checkers.

Natural Language-conditioned reinforcement learning (RL) enables the agents to follow human instructions. Previous approaches generally implemented language-conditioned RL by providing human instructions in natural language (NL) and training a following policy. In this outside-in approach, the policy needs to comprehend the NL and manage the task simultaneously. However, the unbounded NL examples often bring much extra complexity for solving concrete RL tasks, which can distract policy learning from completing the task. To ease the learning burden of the policy, we investigate an inside-out scheme for natural language-conditioned RL by developing a task language (TL) that is task-related and unique. The TL is used in RL to achieve highly efficient and effective policy training. Besides, a translator is trained to translate NL into TL. We implement this scheme as TALAR (TAsk Language with predicAte Representation) that learns multiple predicates to model object relationships as the TL. Experiments indicate that TALAR not only better comprehends NL instructions but also leads to a better instruction-following policy that improves 13.4% success rate and adapts to unseen expressions of NL instruction. The TL can also be an effective task abstraction, naturally compatible with hierarchical RL.

We address natural language pick-and-place in unseen, unpredictable indoor environments with AnywhereVLA, a modular framework for mobile manipulation. A user text prompt serves as an entry point and is parsed into a structured task graph that conditions classical SLAM with LiDAR and cameras, metric semantic mapping, and a task-aware frontier exploration policy. An approach planner then selects visibility and reachability aware pre grasp base poses. For interaction, a compact SmolVLA manipulation head is fine tuned on platform pick and place trajectories for the SO-101 by TheRobotStudio, grounding local visual context and sub-goals into grasp and place proposals. The full system runs fully onboard on consumer-level hardware, with Jetson Orin NX for perception and VLA and an Intel NUC for SLAM, exploration, and control, sustaining real-time operation. We evaluated AnywhereVLA in a multi-room lab under static scenes and normal human motion. In this setting, the system achieves a 46% overall task success rate while maintaining throughput on embedded compute. By combining a classical stack with a fine-tuned VLA manipulation, the system inherits the reliability of geometry-based navigation with the agility and task generalization of language-conditioned manipulation.

Learning manipulation skills from human demonstration videos presents a promising yet challenging problem, primarily due to the significant embodiment gap between human body and robot manipulators. Existing methods rely on paired datasets or hand-crafted rewards, which limit scalability and generalization. We propose TrajSkill, a framework for Trajectory Conditioned Cross-embodiment Skill Transfer, enabling robots to acquire manipulation skills directly from human demonstration videos. Our key insight is to represent human motions as sparse optical flow trajectories, which serve as embodiment-agnostic motion cues by removing morphological variations while preserving essential dynamics. Conditioned on these trajectories together with visual and textual inputs, TrajSkill jointly synthesizes temporally consistent robot manipulation videos and translates them into executable actions, thereby achieving cross-embodiment skill transfer. Extensive experiments are conducted, and the results on simulation data (MetaWorld) show that TrajSkill reduces FVD by 39.6\% and KVD by 36.6\% compared with the state-of-the-art, and improves cross-embodiment success rate by up to 16.7\%. Real-robot experiments in kitchen manipulation tasks further validate the effectiveness of our approach, demonstrating practical human-to-robot skill transfer across embodiments.

We study the task of language-conditioned pick and place in clutter, where a robot should grasp a target object in open clutter and move it to a specified place. Some approaches learn end-to-end policies with features from vision foundation models, requiring large datasets. Others combine foundation models in a zero-shot setting, suffering from cascading errors. In addition, they primarily leverage vision and language foundation models, focusing less on action priors. In this paper, we aim to develop an effective policy by integrating foundation priors from vision, language, and action. We propose A^2, an action prior alignment method that aligns unconditioned action priors with 3D vision-language priors by learning one attention layer. The alignment formulation enables our policy to train with less data and preserve zero-shot generalization capabilities. We show that a shared policy for both pick and place actions enhances the performance for each task, and introduce a policy adaptation scheme to accommodate the multi-modal nature of actions. Extensive experiments in simulation and the real-world show that our policy achieves higher task success rates with fewer steps for both pick and place tasks in clutter, effectively generalizing to unseen objects and language instructions. Videos and codes are available at https://xukechun.github.io/papers/A2.

Teaching robots desired skills in real-world environments remains challenging, especially for non-experts. A key bottleneck is that collecting robotic data often requires expertise or specialized hardware, limiting accessibility and scalability. We posit that natural language offers an intuitive and accessible interface for robot learning. To this end, we study two aspects: (1) enabling non-experts to collect robotic data through natural language supervision (e.g., "move the arm to the right") and (2) training robot policies directly from this supervision. Specifically, we introduce a data collection framework that collects robot demonstrations based on natural language supervision and further augments these demonstrations. We then present CLIP-RT, a new vision-language-action (VLA) model that learns language-conditioned visuomotor policies from this supervision. CLIP-RT adapts the pretrained CLIP model and learns to predict language-based motion primitives via contrastive imitation learning. We train CLIP-RT on the Open X-Embodiment dataset and finetune it on in-domain data collected by our framework. In real-world evaluations, CLIP-RT demonstrates strong capabilities in learning novel manipulation skills, outperforming OpenVLA (7B parameters) by 24% in average success rates, while using 7x fewer parameters (1B). We further assess CLIP-RT's capabilities in few-shot generalization and collaborative scenarios involving large pretrained models or humans. In simulated environments, CLIP-RT also yields strong performance, achieving a 93.1% average success rate on the LIBERO benchmark with an inference throughput of 163 Hz.

While natural language offers a convenient shared interface for humans and robots, enabling robots to interpret and follow language commands remains a longstanding challenge in manipulation. A crucial step to realizing a performant instruction-following robot is achieving semantic manipulation, where a robot interprets language at different specificities, from high-level instructions like "Pick up the stuffed animal" to more detailed inputs like "Grab the left ear of the elephant." To tackle this, we propose Keypoints + Instructions to Execution (KITE), a two-step framework for semantic manipulation which attends to both scene semantics (distinguishing between different objects in a visual scene) and object semantics (precisely localizing different parts within an object instance). KITE first grounds an input instruction in a visual scene through 2D image keypoints, providing a highly accurate object-centric bias for downstream action inference. Provided an RGB-D scene observation, KITE then executes a learned keypoint-conditioned skill to carry out the instruction. The combined precision of keypoints and parameterized skills enables fine-grained manipulation with generalization to scene and object variations. Empirically, we demonstrate KITE in 3 real-world environments: long-horizon 6-DoF tabletop manipulation, semantic grasping, and a high-precision coffee-making task. In these settings, KITE achieves a 75%, 70%, and 71% overall success rate for instruction-following, respectively. KITE outperforms frameworks that opt for pre-trained visual language models over keypoint-based grounding, or omit skills in favor of end-to-end visuomotor control, all while being trained from fewer or comparable amounts of demonstrations. Supplementary material, datasets, code, and videos can be found on our website: http://tinyurl.com/kite-site.

The robotics community has consistently aimed to achieve generalizable robot manipulation with flexible natural language instructions. One primary challenge is that obtaining robot trajectories fully annotated with both actions and texts is time-consuming and labor-intensive. However, partially-annotated data, such as human activity videos without action labels and robot trajectories without text labels, are much easier to collect. Can we leverage these data to enhance the generalization capabilities of robots? In this paper, we propose GR-MG, a novel method which supports conditioning on a text instruction and a goal image. During training, GR-MG samples goal images from trajectories and conditions on both the text and the goal image or solely on the image when text is not available. During inference, where only the text is provided, GR-MG generates the goal image via a diffusion-based image-editing model and conditions on both the text and the generated image. This approach enables GR-MG to leverage large amounts of partially-annotated data while still using languages to flexibly specify tasks. To generate accurate goal images, we propose a novel progress-guided goal image generation model which injects task progress information into the generation process. In simulation experiments, GR-MG improves the average number of tasks completed in a row of 5 from 3.35 to 4.04. In real-robot experiments, GR-MG is able to perform 58 different tasks and improves the success rate from 68.7\% to 78.1\% and 44.4\% to 60.6\% in simple and generalization settings, respectively. It also outperforms comparing baseline methods in few-shot learning of novel skills. Video demos, code, and checkpoints are available on the project page: https://gr-mg.github.io/.

In this work, we tackle the problem of learning universal robotic dexterous grasping from a point cloud observation under a table-top setting. The goal is to grasp and lift up objects in high-quality and diverse ways and generalize across hundreds of categories and even the unseen. Inspired by successful pipelines used in parallel gripper grasping, we split the task into two stages: 1) grasp proposal (pose) generation and 2) goal-conditioned grasp execution. For the first stage, we propose a novel probabilistic model of grasp pose conditioned on the point cloud observation that factorizes rotation from translation and articulation. Trained on our synthesized large-scale dexterous grasp dataset, this model enables us to sample diverse and high-quality dexterous grasp poses for the object point cloud.For the second stage, we propose to replace the motion planning used in parallel gripper grasping with a goal-conditioned grasp policy, due to the complexity involved in dexterous grasping execution. Note that it is very challenging to learn this highly generalizable grasp policy that only takes realistic inputs without oracle states. We thus propose several important innovations, including state canonicalization, object curriculum, and teacher-student distillation. Integrating the two stages, our final pipeline becomes the first to achieve universal generalization for dexterous grasping, demonstrating an average success rate of more than 60\% on thousands of object instances, which significantly outperforms all baselines, meanwhile showing only a minimal generalization gap.

In this work, we propose BAIT (Boundary-Aware Iterative Trap), a three-step jailbreak framework that approaches malicious goals through internal disclosure. BAIT first asks the model to identify the protection boundary, then requires it to refine that boundary, and finally requests a detailed example. By expanding each step upon the model's previous responses, BAIT turns the model's own reasoning and consistency tendency into a disclosure pathway. Experiments on AdvBench, JailbreakBench, AIR-Bench, and SORRY-Bench demonstrate that BAIT consistently achieves strong attack success rates across top-tier large language models, significantly advancing conventional jailbreak baselines. Further analysis reveals that: 1) prevention-oriented framing significantly outperforms direct knowledge request; 2) the refinement step plays a critical role in disclosure escalation; and 3) the first two steps have a certain chance of eliciting harmful content while triggering little filtering.

Agent skills are procedural artifacts that enable LLM agents to execute workflows, verify constraints, and recover from failures. Existing self-evolving methods refine skills using accumulated trajectories. However, they struggle in cold-start settings, where only an initial, imperfect skill is available. Consequently, skill construction defaults to expert authoring or one-shot LLM generation. Expert-authored skills are costly and may not align with how LLM agents actually execute tasks, while one-shot generated skills can be syntactically well formed yet behaviorally weak. To bridge this gap, we propose SkillRevise, an execution-grounded framework designed to iteratively refine these initial skills. SkillRevise diagnoses skill defects from execution evidence, retrieves relevant repair principles from a general memory, and applies execution-anchored edits. By re-executing candidates and measuring empirical utility, it systematically retains the optimal skill version. Evaluated across three benchmarks and five LLMs, SkillRevise substantially outperforms one-shot baselines, improving the base agent's success rate on SkillsBench from 36.05% to 61.63%. Furthermore, the revised skills exhibit strong cross-model transferability, capturing generalized procedural knowledge over model-specific artifacts.

State-of-the-art text-to-image models produce visually impressive results but often struggle with precise alignment to text prompts, leading to missing critical elements or unintended blending of distinct concepts. We propose a novel approach that learns a high-success-rate distribution conditioned on a target prompt, ensuring that generated images faithfully reflect the corresponding prompts. Our method explicitly models the signal component during the denoising process, offering fine-grained control that mitigates over-optimization and out-of-distribution artifacts. Moreover, our framework is training-free and seamlessly integrates with both existing diffusion and flow matching architectures. It also supports additional conditioning modalities -- such as bounding boxes -- for enhanced spatial alignment. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach outperforms current state-of-the-art methods. The code is available at https://github.com/grimalPaul/gsn-factory.

Membership inference attacks serves as useful tool for fair use of language models, such as detecting potential copyright infringement and auditing data leakage. However, many current state-of-the-art attacks require access to models' hidden states or probability distribution, which prevents investigation into more widely-used, API-access only models like GPT-4. In this work, we introduce N-Gram Coverage Attack, a membership inference attack that relies solely on text outputs from the target model, enabling attacks on completely black-box models. We leverage the observation that models are more likely to memorize and subsequently generate text patterns that were commonly observed in their training data. Specifically, to make a prediction on a candidate member, N-Gram Coverage Attack first obtains multiple model generations conditioned on a prefix of the candidate. It then uses n-gram overlap metrics to compute and aggregate the similarities of these outputs with the ground truth suffix; high similarities indicate likely membership. We first demonstrate on a diverse set of existing benchmarks that N-Gram Coverage Attack outperforms other black-box methods while also impressively achieving comparable or even better performance to state-of-the-art white-box attacks - despite having access to only text outputs. Interestingly, we find that the success rate of our method scales with the attack compute budget - as we increase the number of sequences generated from the target model conditioned on the prefix, attack performance tends to improve. Having verified the accuracy of our method, we use it to investigate previously unstudied closed OpenAI models on multiple domains. We find that more recent models, such as GPT-4o, exhibit increased robustness to membership inference, suggesting an evolving trend toward improved privacy protections.

Large language model agents equipped with persistent memory are vulnerable to memory poisoning attacks, where adversaries inject malicious instructions through query only interactions that corrupt the agents long term memory and influence future responses. Recent work demonstrated that the MINJA (Memory Injection Attack) achieves over 95 % injection success rate and 70 % attack success rate under idealized conditions. However, the robustness of these attacks in realistic deployments and effective defensive mechanisms remain understudied. This work addresses these gaps through systematic empirical evaluation of memory poisoning attacks and defenses in Electronic Health Record (EHR) agents. We investigate attack robustness by varying three critical dimensions: initial memory state, number of indication prompts, and retrieval parameters. Our experiments on GPT-4o-mini, Gemini-2.0-Flash and Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct models using MIMIC-III clinical data reveal that realistic conditions with pre-existing legitimate memories dramatically reduce attack effectiveness. We then propose and evaluate two novel defense mechanisms: (1) Input/Output Moderation using composite trust scoring across multiple orthogonal signals, and (2) Memory Sanitization with trust-aware retrieval employing temporal decay and pattern-based filtering. Our defense evaluation reveals that effective memory sanitization requires careful trust threshold calibration to prevent both overly conservative rejection (blocking all entries) and insufficient filtering (missing subtle attacks), establishing important baselines for future adaptive defense mechanisms. These findings provide crucial insights for securing memory-augmented LLM agents in production environments.

Human motion generation is a challenging task that aims to create realistic motion imitating natural human behaviour. We focus on the well-studied behaviour of priming an object/location for pick up or put down -- that is, the spotting of an object/location from a distance, known as gaze priming, followed by the motion of approaching and reaching the target location. To that end, we curate, for the first time, 23.7K gaze-primed human motion sequences for reaching target object locations from five publicly available datasets, i.e., HD-EPIC, MoGaze, HOT3D, ADT, and GIMO. We pre-train a text-conditioned diffusion-based motion generation model, then fine-tune it conditioned on goal pose or location, on our curated sequences. Importantly, we evaluate the ability of the generated motion to imitate natural human movement through several metrics, including the 'Reach Success' and a newly introduced 'Prime Success' metric. On the largest dataset, HD-EPIC, our model achieves 60% prime success and 89% reach success when conditioned on the goal object location.

Recent advances in image generation and editing have opened new opportunities for virtual try-on. However, existing methods still struggle to meet complex real-world demands. We present Tstars-Tryon 1.0, a commercial-scale virtual try-on system that is robust, realistic, versatile, and highly efficient. First, our system maintains a high success rate across challenging cases like extreme poses, severe illumination variations, motion blur, and other in-the-wild conditions. Second, it delivers highly photorealistic results with fine-grained details, faithfully preserving garment texture, material properties, and structural characteristics, while largely avoiding common AI-generated artifacts. Third, beyond apparel try-on, our model supports flexible multi-image composition (up to 6 reference images) across 8 fashion categories, with coordinated control over person identity and background. Fourth, to overcome the latency bottlenecks of commercial deployment, our system is heavily optimized for inference speed, delivering near real-time generation for a seamless user experience. These capabilities are enabled by an integrated system design spanning end-to-end model architecture, a scalable data engine, robust infrastructure, and a multi-stage training paradigm. Extensive evaluation and large-scale product deployment demonstrate that Tstars-Tryon1.0 achieves leading overall performance. To support future research, we also release a comprehensive benchmark. The model has been deployed at an industrial scale on the Taobao App, serving millions of users with tens of millions of requests.

Navigation agents powered by large language models (LLMs) convert natural language instructions into executable plans and actions. Compared to text-based applications, their security is far more critical: a successful prompt injection attack does not just alter outputs but can directly misguide physical navigation, leading to unsafe routes, mission failure, or real-world harm. Despite this high-stakes setting, the vulnerability of navigation agents to prompt injection remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we propose PINA, an adaptive prompt optimization framework tailored to navigation agents under black-box, long-context, and action-executable constraints. Experiments on indoor and outdoor navigation agents show that PINA achieves high attack success rates with an average ASR of 87.5%, surpasses all baselines, and remains robust under ablation and adaptive-attack conditions. This work provides the first systematic investigation of prompt injection attacks in navigation and highlights their urgent security implications for embodied LLM agents.

Computer-use agents (CUAs) can now autonomously complete complex tasks in real digital environments, but when misled, they can also be used to automate harmful actions programmatically. Existing safety evaluations largely target explicit threats such as misuse and prompt injection, but overlook a subtle yet critical setting where user instructions are entirely benign and harm arises from the task context or execution outcome. We introduce OS-BLIND, a benchmark that evaluates CUAs under unintended attack conditions, comprising 300 human-crafted tasks across 12 categories, 8 applications, and 2 threat clusters: environment-embedded threats and agent-initiated harms. Our evaluation on frontier models and agentic frameworks reveals that most CUAs exceed 90% attack success rate (ASR), and even the safety-aligned Claude 4.5 Sonnet reaches 73.0% ASR. More interestingly, this vulnerability becomes even more severe, with ASR rising from 73.0% to 92.7% when Claude 4.5 Sonnet is deployed in multi-agent systems. Our analysis further shows that existing safety defenses provide limited protection when user instructions are benign. Safety alignment primarily activates within the first few steps and rarely re-engages during subsequent execution. In multi-agent systems, decomposed subtasks obscure the harmful intent from the model, causing safety-aligned models to fail. We will release our OS-BLIND to encourage the broader research community to further investigate and address these safety challenges.

We propose a standalone autoregressive (AR) Action Expert that generates actions as a continuous causal sequence while conditioning on refreshable vision-language prefixes. In contrast to existing Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models and diffusion policies that reset temporal context with each new observation and predict actions reactively, our Action Expert maintains its own history through a long-lived memory and is inherently context-aware. This structure addresses the frequency mismatch between fast control and slow reasoning, enabling efficient independent pretraining of kinematic syntax and modular integration with heavy perception backbones, naturally ensuring spatio-temporally consistent action generation across frames. To synchronize these asynchronous hybrid V-L-A modalities, we utilize a re-anchoring mechanism that mathematically accounts for perception staleness during both training and inference. Experiments on simulated and real-robot manipulation tasks demonstrate that the proposed method can effectively replace traditional chunk-based action heads for both specialist and generalist policies. AR-VLA exhibits superior history awareness and substantially smoother action trajectories while maintaining or exceeding the task success rates of state-of-the-art reactive VLAs. Overall, our work introduces a scalable, context-aware action generation schema that provides a robust structural foundation for training effective robotic policies. Code and Videos available at https://arvla.insait.ai

Despite great strides in language-guided manipulation, existing work has been constrained to table-top settings. Table-tops allow for perfect and consistent camera angles, properties are that do not hold in mobile manipulation. Task plans that involve moving around the environment must be robust to egocentric views and changes in the plane and angle of grasp. A further challenge is ensuring this is all true while still being able to learn skills efficiently from limited data. We propose Spatial-Language Attention Policies (SLAP) as a solution. SLAP uses three-dimensional tokens as the input representation to train a single multi-task, language-conditioned action prediction policy. Our method shows an 80% success rate in the real world across eight tasks with a single model, and a 47.5% success rate when unseen clutter and unseen object configurations are introduced, even with only a handful of examples per task. This represents an improvement of 30% over prior work (20% given unseen distractors and configurations). We see a 4x improvement over baseline in mobile manipulation setting. In addition, we show how SLAPs robustness allows us to execute Task Plans from open-vocabulary instructions using a large language model for multi-step mobile manipulation. For videos, see the website: https://robotslap.github.io

In embodied artificial intelligence, enabling heterogeneous robot teams to execute long-horizon tasks from high-level instructions remains a critical challenge. While large language models (LLMs) show promise in instruction parsing and preliminary planning, they exhibit limitations in long-term reasoning and dynamic multi-robot coordination. We propose Hierarchical Autonomous Intelligent Multi-Robot Planning(H-AIM), a novel embodied multi-robot task planning framework that addresses these issues through a three-stage cascaded architecture: 1) It leverages an LLM to parse instructions and generate Planning Domain Definition Language (PDDL) problem descriptions, thereby transforming commands into formal planning problems; 2) It combines the semantic reasoning of LLMs with the search capabilities of a classical planner to produce optimized action sequences; 3) It compiles the resulting plan into behavior trees for reactive control. The framework supports dynamically sized heterogeneous robot teams via a shared blackboard mechanism for communication and state synchronization. To validate our approach, we introduce the MACE-THOR benchmark dataset, comprising 42 complex tasks across 8 distinct household layouts. Experimental results demonstrate that H-AIM achieves a remarkable performance improvement, elevating the task success rate from 12% to 55% and boosting the goal condition recall from 32% to 72% against the strongest baseline, LaMMA-P.

Diffusion models have been extensively leveraged for learning robot skills from demonstrations. These policies are conditioned on several observational modalities such as proprioception, vision and tactile. However, observational modalities have varying levels of influence for different tasks that diffusion polices fail to capture. In this work, we propose 'Factorized Diffusion Policies' abbreviated as FDP, a novel policy formulation that enables observational modalities to have differing influence on the action diffusion process by design. This results in learning policies where certain observations modalities can be prioritized over the others such as vision>tactile or proprioception>vision. FDP achieves modality prioritization by factorizing the observational conditioning for diffusion process, resulting in more performant and robust policies. Our factored approach shows strong performance improvements in low-data regimes with 15% absolute improvement in success rate on several simulated benchmarks when compared to a standard diffusion policy that jointly conditions on all input modalities. Moreover, our benchmark and real-world experiments show that factored policies are naturally more robust with 40% higher absolute success rate across several visuomotor tasks under distribution shifts such as visual distractors or camera occlusions, where existing diffusion policies fail catastrophically. FDP thus offers a safer and more robust alternative to standard diffusion policies for real-world deployment. Videos are available at https://fdp-policy.github.io/fdp-policy/ .

Predicting and reasoning about the future lie at the heart of many time-series questions. For example, goal-conditioned reinforcement learning can be viewed as learning representations to predict which states are likely to be visited in the future. While prior methods have used contrastive predictive coding to model time series data, learning representations that encode long-term dependencies usually requires large amounts of data. In this paper, we introduce a temporal difference version of contrastive predictive coding that stitches together pieces of different time series data to decrease the amount of data required to learn predictions of future events. We apply this representation learning method to derive an off-policy algorithm for goal-conditioned RL. Experiments demonstrate that, compared with prior RL methods, ours achieves 2 times median improvement in success rates and can better cope with stochastic environments. In tabular settings, we show that our method is about 20 times more sample efficient than the successor representation and 1500 times more sample efficient than the standard (Monte Carlo) version of contrastive predictive coding.

Over the next five years, the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) will use 10 spectrographs with 5000 fibers on the 4m Mayall Telescope at Kitt Peak National Observatory to conduct the first Stage-IV dark energy galaxy survey. At z < 0.6, the DESI Bright Galaxy Survey (BGS) will produce the most detailed map of the Universe during the dark energy dominated epoch with redshifts of >10 million galaxies over 14,000 deg^2. In this work, we present and validate the final BGS target selection and survey design. From the Legacy Surveys, BGS will target a r < 19.5 magnitude-limited sample (BGS Bright); a fainter 19.5 < r < 20.175 sample, color-selected to have high redshift efficiency (BGS Faint); and a smaller low-z quasar sample. BGS will observe these targets using exposure times, scaled to achieve uniform completeness, and visit each point on the footprint three times. We use observations from the Survey Validation programs conducted prior to the main survey along with realistic simulations to show that BGS can complete its strategy and make optimal use of `bright' time. We demonstrate that BGS targets have stellar contamination <1% and that their densities do not depend strongly on imaging properties. We also confirm that BGS Bright will achieve >80% fiber assignment efficiency. Finally, we show that BGS Bright and Faint will achieve >95% redshift success rates with no significant dependence on observing conditions. BGS meets the requirements for an extensive range of scientific applications. BGS will yield the most precise Baryon Acoustic Oscillations and Redshift-Space Distortions measurements at z < 0.4. It also presents opportunities to exploit new methods that require highly complete and dense galaxy samples (e.g. N-point statistics, multi-tracers). BGS further provides a powerful tool to study galaxy populations and the relations between galaxies and dark matter.

We present EB-JEPA, an open-source library for learning representations and world models using Joint-Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPAs). JEPAs learn to predict in representation space rather than pixel space, avoiding the pitfalls of generative modeling while capturing semantically meaningful features suitable for downstream tasks. Our library provides modular, self-contained implementations that illustrate how representation learning techniques developed for image-level self-supervised learning can transfer to video, where temporal dynamics add complexity, and ultimately to action-conditioned world models, where the model must additionally learn to predict the effects of control inputs. Each example is designed for single-GPU training within a few hours, making energy-based self-supervised learning accessible for research and education. We provide ablations of JEA components on CIFAR-10. Probing these representations yields 91% accuracy, indicating that the model learns useful features. Extending to video, we include a multi-step prediction example on Moving MNIST that demonstrates how the same principles scale to temporal modeling. Finally, we show how these representations can drive action-conditioned world models, achieving a 97% planning success rate on the Two Rooms navigation task. Comprehensive ablations reveal the critical importance of each regularization component for preventing representation collapse. Code is available at https://github.com/facebookresearch/eb_jepa.

The robot learning community has made great strides in recent years, proposing new architectures and showcasing impressive new capabilities; however, the dominant metric used in the literature, especially for physical experiments, is "success rate", i.e. the percentage of runs that were successful. Furthermore, it is common for papers to report this number with little to no information regarding the number of runs, the initial conditions, and the success criteria, little to no narrative description of the behaviors and failures observed, and little to no statistical analysis of the findings. In this paper we argue that to move the field forward, researchers should provide a nuanced evaluation of their methods, especially when evaluating and comparing learned policies on physical robots. To do so, we propose best practices for future evaluations: explicitly reporting the experimental conditions, evaluating several metrics designed to complement success rate, conducting statistical analysis, and adding a qualitative description of failures modes. We illustrate these through an evaluation on physical robots of several learned policies for manipulation tasks.

Large language model (LLM) agents are increasingly deployed to automate productivity tasks (e.g., email, scheduling, document management), but evaluating them on live services is risky due to potentially irreversible changes. Existing benchmarks rely on simplified environments and fail to capture realistic, stateful, multi-service workflows. We introduce ClawsBench, a benchmark for evaluating and improving LLM agents in realistic productivity settings. It includes five high-fidelity mock services (Gmail, Slack, Google Calendar, Google Docs, Google Drive) with full state management and deterministic snapshot/restore, along with 44 structured tasks covering single-service, cross-service, and safety-critical scenarios. We decompose agent scaffolding into two independent levers (domain skills that inject API knowledge via progressive disclosure, and a meta prompt that coordinates behavior across services) and vary both to measure their separate and combined effects. Experiments across 6 models, 4 agent harnesses, and 33 conditions show that with full scaffolding, agents achieve task success rates of 39-64% but exhibit unsafe action rates of 7-33%. On OpenClaw, the top five models fall within a 10 percentage-point band on task success (53-63%), with unsafe action rates from 7% to 23% and no consistent ordering between the two metrics. We identify eight recurring patterns of unsafe behavior, including multi-step sandbox escalation and silent contract modification.

We propose a diffusion-based approach for Text-to-Image (T2I) generation with interactive 3D layout control. Layout control has been widely studied to alleviate the shortcomings of T2I diffusion models in understanding objects' placement and relationships from text descriptions. Nevertheless, existing approaches for layout control are limited to 2D layouts, require the user to provide a static layout beforehand, and fail to preserve generated images under layout changes. This makes these approaches unsuitable for applications that require 3D object-wise control and iterative refinements, e.g., interior design and complex scene generation. To this end, we leverage the recent advancements in depth-conditioned T2I models and propose a novel approach for interactive 3D layout control. We replace the traditional 2D boxes used in layout control with 3D boxes. Furthermore, we revamp the T2I task as a multi-stage generation process, where at each stage, the user can insert, change, and move an object in 3D while preserving objects from earlier stages. We achieve this through our proposed Dynamic Self-Attention (DSA) module and the consistent 3D object translation strategy. Experiments show that our approach can generate complicated scenes based on 3D layouts, boosting the object generation success rate over the standard depth-conditioned T2I methods by 2x. Moreover, it outperforms other methods in comparison in preserving objects under layout changes. Project Page: https://abdo-eldesokey.github.io/build-a-scene/

It is foreseeable that the number of spacecraft will increase exponentially, ushering in an era dominated by satellite mega-constellations (SMC). This necessitates a focus on energy in space: spacecraft power systems (SPS), especially their health management (HM), given their role in power supply and high failure rates. Providing health management for dozens of SPS and for thousands of SPS represents two fundamentally different paradigms. Therefore, to adapt the health management in the SMC era, this work proposes a principle of aligning underlying capabilities (AUC principle) and develops SpaceHMchat, an open-source Human-AI collaboration (HAIC) framework for all-in-loop health management (AIL HM). SpaceHMchat serves across the entire loop of work condition recognition, anomaly detection, fault localization, and maintenance decision making, achieving goals such as conversational task completion, adaptive human-in-the-loop learning, personnel structure optimization, knowledge sharing, efficiency enhancement, as well as transparent reasoning and improved interpretability. Meanwhile, to validate this exploration, a hardware-realistic fault injection experimental platform is established, and its simulation model is built and open-sourced, both fully replicating the real SPS. The corresponding experimental results demonstrate that SpaceHMchat achieves excellent performance across 23 quantitative metrics, such as 100% conclusion accuracy in logical reasoning of work condition recognition, over 99% success rate in anomaly detection tool invocation, over 90% precision in fault localization, and knowledge base search time under 3 minutes in maintenance decision-making. Another contribution of this work is the release of the first-ever AIL HM dataset of SPS. This dataset contains four sub-datasets, involving 4 types of AIL HM sub-tasks, 17 types of faults, and over 700,000 timestamps.

We present a framework for robot skill acquisition, which 1) efficiently scale up data generation of language-labelled robot data and 2) effectively distills this data down into a robust multi-task language-conditioned visuo-motor policy. For (1), we use a large language model (LLM) to guide high-level planning, and sampling-based robot planners (e.g. motion or grasp samplers) for generating diverse and rich manipulation trajectories. To robustify this data-collection process, the LLM also infers a code-snippet for the success condition of each task, simultaneously enabling the data-collection process to detect failure and retry as well as the automatic labeling of trajectories with success/failure. For (2), we extend the diffusion policy single-task behavior-cloning approach to multi-task settings with language conditioning. Finally, we propose a new multi-task benchmark with 18 tasks across five domains to test long-horizon behavior, common-sense reasoning, tool-use, and intuitive physics. We find that our distilled policy successfully learned the robust retrying behavior in its data collection policy, while improving absolute success rates by 34.8% on average across five domains. The benchmark, code, and qualitative results are on our website https://www.cs.columbia.edu/~huy/scalingup/

While generative models have become effective at producing human-like motions from text, transferring these motions to humanoid robots for physical execution remains challenging. Existing pipelines are often limited by retargeting, where kinematic quality is undermined by physical infeasibility, contact-transition errors, and the high cost of real-world dynamical data. We present a unified latent-driven framework that bridges natural language and whole-body humanoid locomotion through a retarget-free, physics-optimized pipeline. Rather than treating generation and control as separate stages, our key insight is to couple them bidirectionally under physical constraints.We introduce a Physical Plausibility Optimization (PP-Opt) module as the coupling interface. In the forward direction, PP-Opt refines a teacher-student distillation policy with a plausibility-centric reward to suppress artifacts such as floating, skating, and penetration. In the backward direction, it converts reward-optimized simulation rollouts into high-quality explicit motion data, which is used to fine-tune the motion generator toward a more physically plausible latent distribution. This bidirectional design forms a self-improving cycle: the generator learns a physically grounded latent space, while the controller learns to execute latent-conditioned behaviors with dynamical integrity.Extensive experiments on the Unitree G1 humanoid show that our bidirectional optimization improves tracking accuracy and success rates. Across IsaacLab and MuJoCo, the implicit latent-driven pipeline consistently outperforms conventional explicit retargeting baselines in both precision and stability. By coupling diffusion-based motion generation with physical plausibility optimization, our framework provides a practical path toward deployable text-guided humanoid intelligence.

Automated GUI testing is crucial for ensuring the quality and reliability of Android apps. However, the efficacy of existing UI testing techniques is often limited, especially in terms of coverage. Recent studies, including the state-of-the-art, struggle to achieve more than 30% activity coverage in real-world apps. This limited coverage can be attributed to a combination of factors such as failing to generate complex user inputs, unsatisfied activation conditions regarding device configurations and external resources, and hard-to-reach code paths that are not easily accessible through the GUI. To overcome these limitations, we propose CovAgent, a novel agentic AI-powered approach to enhance Android app UI testing. Our fuzzer-agnostic framework comprises an AI agent that inspects the app's decompiled Smali code and component transition graph, and reasons about unsatisfied activation conditions within the app code logic that prevent access to the activities that are unreachable by standard and widely adopted GUI fuzzers. Then, another agent generates dynamic instrumentation scripts that satisfy activation conditions required for successful transitions to those activities. We found that augmenting existing fuzzing approaches with our framework achieves a significant improvement in test coverage over the state-of-the-art, LLMDroid, and other baselines such as Fastbot and APE (e.g., 101.1%, 116.3% and 179.7% higher activity coverage, respectively). CovAgent also outperforms all the baselines in other metrics such as class, method, and line coverage. We also conduct investigations into components within CovAgent to reveal further insights regarding the efficacy of Agentic AI in the field of automated app testing such as the agentic activation condition inference accuracy, and agentic activity-launching success rate.

Diffusion models are a class of probabilistic generative models that have been widely used as a prior for image processing tasks like text conditional generation and inpainting. We demonstrate that these models can be adapted to make predictions and provide uncertainty quantification for chaotic dynamical systems. In these applications, diffusion models can implicitly represent knowledge about outliers and extreme events; however, querying that knowledge through conditional sampling or measuring probabilities is surprisingly difficult. Existing methods for conditional sampling at inference time seek mainly to enforce the constraints, which is insufficient to match the statistics of the distribution or compute the probability of the chosen events. To achieve these ends, optimally one would use the conditional score function, but its computation is typically intractable. In this work, we develop a probabilistic approximation scheme for the conditional score function which provably converges to the true distribution as the noise level decreases. With this scheme we are able to sample conditionally on nonlinear userdefined events at inference time, and matches data statistics even when sampling from the tails of the distribution.

Language models (LMs) are pretrained to imitate internet text, including content that would violate human preferences if generated by an LM: falsehoods, offensive comments, personally identifiable information, low-quality or buggy code, and more. Here, we explore alternative objectives for pretraining LMs in a way that also guides them to generate text aligned with human preferences. We benchmark five objectives for pretraining with human feedback across three tasks and study how they affect the trade-off between alignment and capabilities of pretrained LMs. We find a Pareto-optimal and simple approach among those we explored: conditional training, or learning distribution over tokens conditional on their human preference scores given by a reward model. Conditional training reduces the rate of undesirable content by up to an order of magnitude, both when generating without a prompt and with an adversarially-chosen prompt. Moreover, conditional training maintains the downstream task performance of standard LM pretraining, both before and after task-specific finetuning. Pretraining with human feedback results in much better preference satisfaction than standard LM pretraining followed by finetuning with feedback, i.e., learning and then unlearning undesirable behavior. Our results suggest that we should move beyond imitation learning when pretraining LMs and incorporate human preferences from the start of training.

Conditional Neural Processes (CNPs) are a class of metalearning models popular for combining the runtime efficiency of amortized inference with reliable uncertainty quantification. Many relevant machine learning tasks, such as in spatio-temporal modeling, Bayesian Optimization and continuous control, inherently contain equivariances -- for example to translation -- which the model can exploit for maximal performance. However, prior attempts to include equivariances in CNPs do not scale effectively beyond two input dimensions. In this work, we propose Relational Conditional Neural Processes (RCNPs), an effective approach to incorporate equivariances into any neural process model. Our proposed method extends the applicability and impact of equivariant neural processes to higher dimensions. We empirically demonstrate the competitive performance of RCNPs on a large array of tasks naturally containing equivariances.

We introduce the first version of KWBench (Knowledge Work Bench), a benchmark for unprompted problem recognition in large language models: can an LLM identify a professional scenario before attempting to solve it. Existing frontier benchmarks have saturated, and most knowledge-work evaluations to date reduce to extraction or task completion against a specification. KWBench targets the step before that: recognizing the governing structure of the situation from raw inputs alone. The benchmark contains 223 tasks sourced from practitioners across acquisitions, contract negotiations, clinical pharmacy, organizational politics, fraud analysis, and incentive design. Each task encodes a formal game-theoretic pattern (principal-agent conflict, signaling, mechanism design failure, strategic omission, coalitional dynamics, strategic interdependence) and carries structured ground truth recording the expert reading of the situation and the anticipated failure modes. Models receive raw data and a task prompt with no indication of problem type. Scoring is a three-tier rubric gated by a mandatory conjunctive check. Mandatory criteria encode the predicted wrong paths. We evaluate 16 models. The best model passes on 27.9% of tasks. The top two models agree on only 31.7% of their passes. Among the top 8, 44 tasks are solved by exactly one model; routing across the top 8 covers 50.7% of the benchmark, nearly double the best single model. Conditional on passing, quality scores converge (approx 83% across models); unconditional scores do not. Same models articulate the relevant game-theoretic concept correctly when asked, then fail to apply it unprompted. We release KWBench to shift how frontier models are evaluated on knowledge work, scoring them on whether they recognize the right problem from the situation alone, not only on how well they execute once the problem has been framed for them.

To enhance the handover performance in fifth generation (5G) cellular systems, conditional handover (CHO) has been evolved as a promising solution. Unlike A3 based handover where handover execution is certain after receiving handover command from the serving access network, in CHO, handover execution is conditional on the RSRP measurements from both current and target access networks, as well as on mobility parameters such as preparation and execution offsets. Analytic evaluation of conditional handover performance is unprecedented in literature. In this work, handover performance of CHO has been carried out in terms of handover latency, handover packet loss and handover failure probability. A Markov model accounting the effect of different mobility parameters (e.g., execution offset, preparation offset, time-to-preparation and time-to-execution), UE velocity and channel fading characteristics; has been proposed to characterize handover failure. Results obtained from the analytic model has been validated against extensive simulation results. Our study reveal that optimal configuration of O_{exec}, O_{prep}, T_{exec} and T_{prep} is actually conditional on underlying UE velocity and fading characteristics. This study will be helpful for the mobile operators to choose appropriate thresholds of the mobility parameters under different channel condition and UE velocities.

Survival analysis, or time-to-event modelling, is a classical statistical problem that has garnered a lot of interest for its practical use in epidemiology, demographics or actuarial sciences. Recent advances on the subject from the point of view of machine learning have been concerned with precise per-individual predictions instead of population studies, driven by the rise of individualized medicine. We introduce here a conditional normalizing flow based estimate of the time-to-event density as a way to model highly flexible and individualized conditional survival distributions. We use a novel hierarchical formulation of normalizing flows to enable efficient fitting of flexible conditional distributions without overfitting and show how the normalizing flow formulation can be efficiently adapted to the censored setting. We experimentally validate the proposed approach on a synthetic dataset as well as four open medical datasets and an example of a common financial problem.

Conditional computing processes an input using only part of the neural network's computational units. Learning to execute parts of a deep convolutional network by routing individual samples has several advantages: Reducing the computational burden is an obvious advantage. Furthermore, if similar classes are routed to the same path, that part of the network learns to discriminate between finer differences and better classification accuracies can be attained with fewer parameters. Recently, several papers have exploited this idea to take a particular child of a node in a tree-shaped network or to skip parts of a network. In this work, we follow a Trellis-based approach for generating specific execution paths in a deep convolutional neural network. We have designed routing mechanisms that use differentiable information gain-based cost functions to determine which subset of features in a convolutional layer will be executed. We call our method Conditional Information Gain Trellis (CIGT). We show that our conditional execution mechanism achieves comparable or better model performance compared to unconditional baselines, using only a fraction of the computational resources.

Neural Posterior Estimation methods for simulation-based inference can be ill-suited for dealing with posterior distributions obtained by conditioning on multiple observations, as they tend to require a large number of simulator calls to learn accurate approximations. In contrast, Neural Likelihood Estimation methods can handle multiple observations at inference time after learning from individual observations, but they rely on standard inference methods, such as MCMC or variational inference, which come with certain performance drawbacks. We introduce a new method based on conditional score modeling that enjoys the benefits of both approaches. We model the scores of the (diffused) posterior distributions induced by individual observations, and introduce a way of combining the learned scores to approximately sample from the target posterior distribution. Our approach is sample-efficient, can naturally aggregate multiple observations at inference time, and avoids the drawbacks of standard inference methods.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) for large language models (LLMs) has achieved remarkable progress in enhancing LLMs' reasoning capabilities on tasks with clear correctness criteria, such as mathematical reasoning tasks. Several training metrics, such as entropy or response length, have been observed to correlate with different reasoning behaviors in reinforcement learning. Prior approaches incorporate such priors through reward or advantage shaping, which often relies on hand-crafted penalties and preferences (e.g., higher-is-better or lower-is-better). However, without careful hyperparameter tuning, these directional priors can be overly biased and may lead to failure. To this end, we introduce Conditional advANtage estimatiON (CANON), amplifying the impact of the target metric without presuming its direction. Specifically, CANON regroups the sampled responses into two groups based on the higher or lower value of a target metric, measures which metric trend contributes to better performance through inter-group comparison, and identifies the better response within the same group. In summary, CANON based on entropy consistently outperforms prior methods across three LLMs on both math reasoning and high-complexity logic tasks. When applied to response length, CANON further improves token efficiency, yielding a more favorable Pareto frontier in the performance-cost trade-off.

The adoption of Large Language Models (LLMs) for code generation in data science offers substantial potential for enhancing tasks such as data manipulation, statistical analysis, and visualization. However, the effectiveness of these models in the data science domain remains underexplored. This paper presents a controlled experiment that empirically assesses the performance of four leading LLM-based AI assistants-Microsoft Copilot (GPT-4 Turbo), ChatGPT (o1-preview), Claude (3.5 Sonnet), and Perplexity Labs (Llama-3.1-70b-instruct)-on a diverse set of data science coding challenges sourced from the Stratacratch platform. Using the Goal-Question-Metric (GQM) approach, we evaluated each model's effectiveness across task types (Analytical, Algorithm, Visualization) and varying difficulty levels. Our findings reveal that all models exceeded a 50% baseline success rate, confirming their capability beyond random chance. Notably, only ChatGPT and Claude achieved success rates significantly above a 60% baseline, though none of the models reached a 70% threshold, indicating limitations in higher standards. ChatGPT demonstrated consistent performance across varying difficulty levels, while Claude's success rate fluctuated with task complexity. Hypothesis testing indicates that task type does not significantly impact success rate overall. For analytical tasks, efficiency analysis shows no significant differences in execution times, though ChatGPT tended to be slower and less predictable despite high success rates. This study provides a structured, empirical evaluation of LLMs in data science, delivering insights that support informed model selection tailored to specific task demands. Our findings establish a framework for future AI assessments, emphasizing the value of rigorous evaluation beyond basic accuracy measures.

We study the problem of learning generative models for discrete sequences in a continuous embedding space. Whereas prior approaches typically operate in Euclidean space or on the probability simplex, we instead work on the sphere mathbb S^{d-1}. There the von Mises-Fisher (vMF) distribution induces a natural noise process and admits a closed-form conditional score. The conditional velocity is in general intractable. Exploiting the radial symmetry of the vMF density we reduce the continuity equation on mathbb S^{d-1} to a scalar ODE in the cosine similarity, whose unique bounded solution determines the velocity. The marginal velocity and marginal score on (mathbb S^{d-1})^L both decompose into posterior-weighted tangent sums that differ only by per-token scalar weights. This gives access to both ODE and predictor-corrector (PC) sampling. The posterior is the only learned object, trained by a cross-entropy loss. Experiments compare the vMF path against geodesic and Euclidean alternatives. The combination of vMF and PC sampling significantly improves results on Sudoku and language modeling.

To measure the difference between two probability distributions, referred to as the source and target, respectively, we exploit both the chain rule and Bayes' theorem to construct conditional transport (CT), which is constituted by both a forward component and a backward one. The forward CT is the expected cost of moving a source data point to a target one, with their joint distribution defined by the product of the source probability density function (PDF) and a source-dependent conditional distribution, which is related to the target PDF via Bayes' theorem. The backward CT is defined by reversing the direction. The CT cost can be approximated by replacing the source and target PDFs with their discrete empirical distributions supported on mini-batches, making it amenable to implicit distributions and stochastic gradient descent-based optimization. When applied to train a generative model, CT is shown to strike a good balance between mode-covering and mode-seeking behaviors and strongly resist mode collapse. On a wide variety of benchmark datasets for generative modeling, substituting the default statistical distance of an existing generative adversarial network with CT is shown to consistently improve the performance. PyTorch code is provided.

Many existing conditional score-based data generation methods utilize Bayes' theorem to decompose the gradients of a log posterior density into a mixture of scores. These methods facilitate the training procedure of conditional score models, as a mixture of scores can be separately estimated using a score model and a classifier. However, our analysis indicates that the training objectives for the classifier in these methods may lead to a serious score mismatch issue, which corresponds to the situation that the estimated scores deviate from the true ones. Such an issue causes the samples to be misled by the deviated scores during the diffusion process, resulting in a degraded sampling quality. To resolve it, we formulate a novel training objective, called Denoising Likelihood Score Matching (DLSM) loss, for the classifier to match the gradients of the true log likelihood density. Our experimental evidence shows that the proposed method outperforms the previous methods on both Cifar-10 and Cifar-100 benchmarks noticeably in terms of several key evaluation metrics. We thus conclude that, by adopting DLSM, the conditional scores can be accurately modeled, and the effect of the score mismatch issue is alleviated.

We incorporate discrete and continuous time Markov processes as building blocks into probabilistic graphical models with latent and observed variables. We introduce the automatic Backward Filtering Forward Guiding (BFFG) paradigm (Mider et al., 2021) for programmable inference on latent states and model parameters. Our starting point is a generative model, a forward description of the probabilistic process dynamics. We backpropagate the information provided by observations through the model to transform the generative (forward) model into a pre-conditional model guided by the data. It approximates the actual conditional model with known likelihood-ratio between the two. The backward filter and the forward change of measure are suitable to be incorporated into a probabilistic programming context because they can be formulated as a set of transformation rules. The guided generative model can be incorporated in different approaches to efficiently sample latent states and parameters conditional on observations. We show applicability in a variety of settings, including Markov chains with discrete state space, interacting particle systems, state space models, branching diffusions and Gamma processes.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

Learning the response of single-cells to various treatments offers great potential to enable targeted therapies. In this context, neural optimal transport (OT) has emerged as a principled methodological framework because it inherently accommodates the challenges of unpaired data induced by cell destruction during data acquisition. However, most existing OT approaches are incapable of conditioning on different treatment contexts (e.g., time, drug treatment, drug dosage, or cell type) and we still lack methods that unanimously show promising generalization performance to unseen treatments. Here, we propose the Conditional Monge Gap which learns OT maps conditionally on arbitrary covariates. We demonstrate its value in predicting single-cell perturbation responses conditional to one or multiple drugs, a drug dosage, or combinations thereof. We find that our conditional models achieve results comparable and sometimes even superior to the condition-specific state-of-the-art on scRNA-seq as well as multiplexed protein imaging data. Notably, by aggregating data across conditions we perform cross-task learning which unlocks remarkable generalization abilities to unseen drugs or drug dosages, widely outperforming other conditional models in capturing heterogeneity (i.e., higher moments) in the perturbed population. Finally, by scaling to hundreds of conditions and testing on unseen drugs, we narrow the gap between structure-based and effect-based drug representations, suggesting a promising path to the successful prediction of perturbation effects for unseen treatments.

Conditional diffusion models are powerful generative models that can leverage various types of conditional information, such as class labels, segmentation masks, or text captions. However, in many real-world scenarios, conditional information may be noisy or unreliable due to human annotation errors or weak alignment. In this paper, we propose the Coherence-Aware Diffusion (CAD), a novel method that integrates coherence in conditional information into diffusion models, allowing them to learn from noisy annotations without discarding data. We assume that each data point has an associated coherence score that reflects the quality of the conditional information. We then condition the diffusion model on both the conditional information and the coherence score. In this way, the model learns to ignore or discount the conditioning when the coherence is low. We show that CAD is theoretically sound and empirically effective on various conditional generation tasks. Moreover, we show that leveraging coherence generates realistic and diverse samples that respect conditional information better than models trained on cleaned datasets where samples with low coherence have been discarded.

Recent improvements in conditional generative modeling have made it possible to generate high-quality images from language descriptions alone. We investigate whether these methods can directly address the problem of sequential decision-making. We view decision-making not through the lens of reinforcement learning (RL), but rather through conditional generative modeling. To our surprise, we find that our formulation leads to policies that can outperform existing offline RL approaches across standard benchmarks. By modeling a policy as a return-conditional diffusion model, we illustrate how we may circumvent the need for dynamic programming and subsequently eliminate many of the complexities that come with traditional offline RL. We further demonstrate the advantages of modeling policies as conditional diffusion models by considering two other conditioning variables: constraints and skills. Conditioning on a single constraint or skill during training leads to behaviors at test-time that can satisfy several constraints together or demonstrate a composition of skills. Our results illustrate that conditional generative modeling is a powerful tool for decision-making.

Anomaly detection methods can be very useful in identifying unusual or interesting patterns in data. A recently proposed conditional anomaly detection framework extends anomaly detection to the problem of identifying anomalous patterns on a subset of attributes in the data. The anomaly always depends (is conditioned) on the value of remaining attributes. The work presented in this paper focuses on instance-based methods for detecting conditional anomalies. The methods rely on the distance metric to identify examples in the dataset that are most critical for detecting the anomaly. We investigate various metrics and metric learning methods to optimize the performance of the instance-based anomaly detection methods. We show the benefits of the instance-based methods on two real-world detection problems: detection of unusual admission decisions for patients with the community-acquired pneumonia and detection of unusual orders of an HPF4 test that is used to confirm Heparin induced thrombocytopenia - a life-threatening condition caused by the Heparin therapy.

Given a black-box AI system and a task, at what confidence level can a practitioner trust the system's output? We answer with a reliability level -- a single number per system-task pair, derived from self-consistency sampling and conformal calibration, that serves as a black-box deployment gate with exact, finite-sample, distribution-free guarantees. Self-consistency sampling reduces uncertainty exponentially; conformal calibration guarantees correctness within 1/(n+1) of the target level, regardless of the system's errors -- made transparently visible through larger answer sets for harder questions. Weaker models earn lower reliability levels (not accuracy -- see Definition 2.4): GPT-4.1 earns 94.6% on GSM8K and 96.8% on TruthfulQA, while GPT-4.1-nano earns 89.8% on GSM8K and 66.5% on MMLU. We validate across five benchmarks, five models from three families, and both synthetic and real data. Conditional coverage on solvable items exceeds 0.93 across all configurations; sequential stopping reduces API costs by around 50%.

We show that there is a general, informative and reliable procedure for discovering causal relations when, for all the investigator knows, both latent variables and selection bias may be at work. Given information about conditional independence and dependence relations between measured variables, even when latent variables and selection bias may be present, there are sufficient conditions for reliably concluding that there is a causal path from one variable to another, and sufficient conditions for reliably concluding when no such causal path exists.

A core goal of computational social science is to discover interpretable differences in how language varies across outcomes of interest, such as political affiliation or instructional quality. Recent LLM-based hypothesis generation methods describe such differences in natural language, but select for globally discriminative patterns without accounting for covariates that shape the data based on researchers' domain knowledge. When covariates are ignored, selected patterns can reflect confounds rather than differences of substantive interest. We introduce conditional hypothesis generation, a framework that incorporates researcher-specified covariates to steer hypothesis discovery toward differences that hold within relevant subgroups. Two challenges arise: the target subgroup may be underrepresented (stratum imbalance), and the direction of a difference may reverse across subgroups (sign reversal). We propose two econometrics-inspired methods: one introduces feature--covariate interactions to detect sign reversals, and the other applies within-stratum demeaning and inverse-frequency reweighting to equalize underrepresented strata. Synthetic experiments show each method outperforms global baselines in its targeted setting, and expert evaluation on two real-world datasets confirms that covariate-aware generation surfaces more useful hypotheses within relevant subgroups.

Conditional Text Generation has drawn much attention as a topic of Natural Language Generation (NLG) which provides the possibility for humans to control the properties of generated contents. Current conditional generation models cannot handle emerging conditions due to their joint end-to-end learning fashion. When a new condition added, these techniques require full retraining. In this paper, we present a new framework named Pre-train and Plug-in Variational Auto-Encoder (PPVAE) towards flexible conditional text generation. PPVAE decouples the text generation module from the condition representation module to allow "one-to-many" conditional generation. When a fresh condition emerges, only a lightweight network needs to be trained and works as a plug-in for PPVAE, which is efficient and desirable for real-world applications. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of PPVAE against the existing alternatives with better conditionality and diversity but less training effort.

Generative models trained using self-supervision of tokenized electronic health record (EHR) timelines show promise for clinical outcome prediction. This is typically done using Monte Carlo simulation for future patient trajectories. However, existing approaches suffer from three key limitations: sparse estimate distributions that poorly differentiate patient risk levels, extreme computational costs, and high sampling variance. We propose two new estimators: the Sum of Conditional Outcome Probability Estimator (SCOPE) and Risk Estimation from Anticipated Conditional Hazards (REACH), that leverage next-token probability distributions discarded by standard Monte Carlo. We prove both estimators are unbiased and that REACH guarantees variance reduction over Monte Carlo sampling for any model and outcome. Empirically, on hospital mortality prediction in MIMIC-IV using the ETHOS-ARES framework, SCOPE and REACH match 100-sample Monte Carlo performance using only 10-11 samples (95% CI: [9,11]), representing a ~10x reduction in inference cost without degrading calibration. For ICU admission prediction, efficiency gains are more modest (~1.2x), which we attribute to the outcome's lower "spontaneity," a property we characterize theoretically and empirically. These methods substantially improve the feasibility of deploying generative EHR models in resource-constrained clinical settings.

While conditional diffusion models are known to have good coverage of the data distribution, they still face limitations in output diversity, particularly when sampled with a high classifier-free guidance scale for optimal image quality or when trained on small datasets. We attribute this problem to the role of the conditioning signal in inference and offer an improved sampling strategy for diffusion models that can increase generation diversity, especially at high guidance scales, with minimal loss of sample quality. Our sampling strategy anneals the conditioning signal by adding scheduled, monotonically decreasing Gaussian noise to the conditioning vector during inference to balance diversity and condition alignment. Our Condition-Annealed Diffusion Sampler (CADS) can be used with any pretrained model and sampling algorithm, and we show that it boosts the diversity of diffusion models in various conditional generation tasks. Further, using an existing pretrained diffusion model, CADS achieves a new state-of-the-art FID of 1.70 and 2.31 for class-conditional ImageNet generation at 256times256 and 512times512 respectively.

In recent years, diffusion models have gained popularity for their ability to generate higher-quality images in comparison to GAN models. However, like any other large generative models, these models require a huge amount of data, computational resources, and meticulous tuning for successful training. This poses a significant challenge, rendering it infeasible for most individuals. As a result, the research community has devised methods to leverage pre-trained unconditional diffusion models with additional guidance for the purpose of conditional image generative. These methods enable conditional image generations on diverse inputs and, most importantly, circumvent the need for training the diffusion model. In this paper, our objective is to reduce the time-required and computational overhead introduced by the addition of guidance in diffusion models -- while maintaining comparable image quality. We propose a set of methods based on our empirical analysis, demonstrating a reduction in computation time by approximately threefold.

Scaling the number of parameters and the size of training data has proven to be an effective strategy for improving large language model (LLM) performance. Yet, as these models grow increasingly powerful and widely deployed, the cost of inference has become a pressing concern. Despite its importance, the trade-off between model accuracy and inference efficiency remains underexplored. In this work, we examine how key architectural factors, hidden size, the allocation of parameters between MLP and attention (mlp-to-attention ratio), and grouped-query attention (GQA), influence both inference cost and accuracy. We introduce a conditional scaling law that augments the Chinchilla framework with architectural information, along with a search framework for identifying architectures that are simultaneously inference-efficient and accurate. To validate our approach, we train more than 200 models spanning 80M to 3B parameters and 8B to 100B training tokens, and fit the proposed conditional scaling law. Our results show that the conditional scaling law reliably predicts optimal architectural choices and that the resulting models outperform existing open-source baselines. Under the same training budget, optimized architectures achieve up to 2.1% higher accuracy and 42% greater inference throughput compared to LLaMA-3.2.

We describe a Question Answering (QA) dataset that contains complex questions with conditional answers, i.e. the answers are only applicable when certain conditions apply. We call this dataset ConditionalQA. In addition to conditional answers, the dataset also features: (1) long context documents with information that is related in logically complex ways; (2) multi-hop questions that require compositional logical reasoning; (3) a combination of extractive questions, yes/no questions, questions with multiple answers, and not-answerable questions; (4) questions asked without knowing the answers. We show that ConditionalQA is challenging for many of the existing QA models, especially in selecting answer conditions. We believe that this dataset will motivate further research in answering complex questions over long documents. Data and leaderboard are publicly available at https://github.com/haitian-sun/ConditionalQA.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used for tasks that require complex reasoning. Most benchmarks focus on final outcomes but overlook the intermediate reasoning steps - such as planning, revision, and decision making under resource constraints. We argue that measuring these internal processes is essential for understanding model behavior and improving reliability. We propose using strategic games as a natural evaluation environment: closed, rule-based systems with clear states, limited resources, and automatic feedback. We introduce a framework that evaluates LLMs along three core dimensions: planning, revision, and resource-constrained decision making. To operationalize this, we define metrics beyond win rate, including overcorrection risk rate, correction success rate, improvement slope, and over-budget ratio. In 4320 adversarial rounds across 12 leading models, ChatGPT-o3-mini achieves the top composite score, with a win rate of 74.7 percent, a correction success rate of 78.6 percent, and an improvement slope of 0.041. By contrast, Qwen-Plus, despite an overcorrection risk rate of 81.6 percent, wins only 25.6 percent of its matches - primarily due to excessive resource use. We also observe a negative correlation between overcorrection risk rate and correction success rate (Pearson r = -0.51, p = 0.093), suggesting that more frequent edits do not always improve outcomes. Our findings highlight the value of assessing not only what LLMs decide but how they arrive at those decisions

Anomaly detection methods can be very useful in identifying unusual or interesting patterns in data. A recently proposed conditional anomaly detection framework extends anomaly detection to the problem of identifying anomalous patterns on a subset of attributes in the data. The anomaly always depends (is conditioned) on the value of remaining attributes. The work presented in this paper focuses on instance-based methods for detecting conditional anomalies. The methods depend heavily on the distance metric that lets us identify examples in the dataset that are most critical for detecting the anomaly. To optimize the performance of such methods we study and devise a metric learning method that learns the distance metric to reflect best the conditional anomaly pattern.

Deep generative models are becoming a cornerstone of modern machine learning. Recent work on conditional generative adversarial networks has shown that learning complex, high-dimensional distributions over natural images is within reach. While the latest models are able to generate high-fidelity, diverse natural images at high resolution, they rely on a vast quantity of labeled data. In this work we demonstrate how one can benefit from recent work on self- and semi-supervised learning to outperform the state of the art on both unsupervised ImageNet synthesis, as well as in the conditional setting. In particular, the proposed approach is able to match the sample quality (as measured by FID) of the current state-of-the-art conditional model BigGAN on ImageNet using only 10% of the labels and outperform it using 20% of the labels.

Our motivation is to shed light the performance of the widely popular "R-Learner." Like many other methods for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATEs), R-Learning can be expressed as a weighted pseudo-outcome regression (POR). Previous comparisons of POR techniques have paid careful attention to the choice of pseudo-outcome transformation. However, we argue that the dominant driver of performance is actually the choice of weights. Specifically, we argue that R-Learning implicitly performs an inverse-variance weighted form of POR. These weights stabilize the regression and allow for convenient simplifications of bias terms.

We introduce a general, flexible, parametric survival modelling framework which encompasses key shapes of hazard function (constant, increasing, decreasing, up-then-down, down-then-up), various common survival distributions (log-logistic, Burr type XII, Weibull, Gompertz), and includes defective distributions (i.e., cure models). This generality is achieved using four basic distributional parameters: two scale-type parameters and two shape parameters. Generalising to covariate dependence, the scale-type regression components correspond to accelerated failure time (AFT) and proportional hazards (PH) models. Therefore, this general formulation unifies the most popular survival models which allows us to consider the practical value of possible modelling choices for survival data. Furthermore, in line with our proposed flexible baseline distribution, we advocate the use of multi-parameter regression in which more than one distributional parameter depends on covariates - rather than the usual convention of having a single covariate-dependent (scale) parameter. While many choices are available, we suggest introducing covariates through just one or other of the two scale parameters, which covers AFT and PH models, in combination with a `power' shape parameter, which allows for more complex non-AFT/non-PH effects, while the other shape parameter remains covariate-independent, and handles automatic selection of the baseline distribution. We explore inferential issues in simulations, both with and without a covariate, with particular focus on evidence concerning the need, or otherwise, to include both AFT and PH parameters. We illustrate the efficacy of our modelling framework by investigating differences between treatment groups using data from a lung cancer study and a melanoma study. Censoring is accommodated throughout.

Recent advances in Conditional Diffusion Models have led to substantial capabilities in various domains. However, understanding the impact of variations in the initial seed vector remains an underexplored area of concern. Particularly, latent-based diffusion models display inconsistencies in image generation under standard conditions when initialized with suboptimal initial seed vectors. To understand the impact of the initial seed vector on generated samples, we propose a reliability evaluation framework that evaluates the generated samples of a diffusion model when the initial seed vector is subjected to various synthetic shifts. Our results indicate that slight manipulations to the initial seed vector of the state-of-the-art Stable Diffusion (Rombach et al., 2022) can lead to significant disturbances in the generated samples, consequently creating images without the effect of conditioning variables. In contrast, GLIDE (Nichol et al., 2022) stands out in generating reliable samples even when the initial seed vector is transformed. Thus, our study sheds light on the importance of the selection and the impact of the initial seed vector in the latent-based diffusion model.

Often we wish to predict a large number of variables that depend on each other as well as on other observed variables. Structured prediction methods are essentially a combination of classification and graphical modeling, combining the ability of graphical models to compactly model multivariate data with the ability of classification methods to perform prediction using large sets of input features. This tutorial describes conditional random fields, a popular probabilistic method for structured prediction. CRFs have seen wide application in natural language processing, computer vision, and bioinformatics. We describe methods for inference and parameter estimation for CRFs, including practical issues for implementing large scale CRFs. We do not assume previous knowledge of graphical modeling, so this tutorial is intended to be useful to practitioners in a wide variety of fields.

Conditional language models are predominantly trained with maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), giving probability mass to sparsely observed target sequences. While MLE trained models assign high probability to plausible sequences given the context, the model probabilities often do not accurately rank-order generated sequences by quality. This has been empirically observed in beam search decoding as output quality degrading with large beam sizes, and decoding strategies benefiting from heuristics such as length normalization and repetition-blocking. In this work, we introduce sequence likelihood calibration (SLiC) where the likelihood of model generated sequences are calibrated to better align with reference sequences in the model's latent space. With SLiC, decoding heuristics become unnecessary and decoding candidates' quality significantly improves regardless of the decoding method. Furthermore, SLiC shows no sign of diminishing returns with model scale, and presents alternative ways to improve quality with limited training and inference budgets. With SLiC, we exceed or match SOTA results on a wide range of generation tasks spanning abstractive summarization, question generation, abstractive question answering and data-to-text generation, even with modest-sized models.

Moment restrictions and their conditional counterparts emerge in many areas of machine learning and statistics ranging from causal inference to reinforcement learning. Estimators for these tasks, generally called methods of moments, include the prominent generalized method of moments (GMM) which has recently gained attention in causal inference. GMM is a special case of the broader family of empirical likelihood estimators which are based on approximating a population distribution by means of minimizing a varphi-divergence to an empirical distribution. However, the use of varphi-divergences effectively limits the candidate distributions to reweightings of the data samples. We lift this long-standing limitation and provide a method of moments that goes beyond data reweighting. This is achieved by defining an empirical likelihood estimator based on maximum mean discrepancy which we term the kernel method of moments (KMM). We provide a variant of our estimator for conditional moment restrictions and show that it is asymptotically first-order optimal for such problems. Finally, we show that our method achieves competitive performance on several conditional moment restriction tasks.

Minibatch optimal transport coupling straightens paths in unconditional flow matching. This leads to computationally less demanding inference as fewer integration steps and less complex numerical solvers can be employed when numerically solving an ordinary differential equation at test time. However, in the conditional setting, minibatch optimal transport falls short. This is because the default optimal transport mapping disregards conditions, resulting in a conditionally skewed prior distribution during training. In contrast, at test time, we have no access to the skewed prior, and instead sample from the full, unbiased prior distribution. This gap between training and testing leads to a subpar performance. To bridge this gap, we propose conditional optimal transport C^2OT that adds a conditional weighting term in the cost matrix when computing the optimal transport assignment. Experiments demonstrate that this simple fix works with both discrete and continuous conditions in 8gaussians-to-moons, CIFAR-10, ImageNet-32x32, and ImageNet-256x256. Our method performs better overall compared to the existing baselines across different function evaluation budgets. Code is available at https://hkchengrex.github.io/C2OT

Models that can predict the occurrence of events ahead of time with low false-alarm rates are critical to the acceptance of decision support systems in the medical community. This challenging task is typically treated as a simple binary classification, ignoring temporal dependencies between samples, whereas we propose to exploit this structure. We first introduce a common theoretical framework unifying dynamic survival analysis and early event prediction. Following an analysis of objectives from both fields, we propose Temporal Label Smoothing (TLS), a simpler, yet best-performing method that preserves prediction monotonicity over time. By focusing the objective on areas with a stronger predictive signal, TLS improves performance over all baselines on two large-scale benchmark tasks. Gains are particularly notable along clinically relevant measures, such as event recall at low false-alarm rates. TLS reduces the number of missed events by up to a factor of two over previously used approaches in early event prediction.

Recent works have extended notions of feature importance to semantic concepts that are inherently interpretable to the users interacting with a black-box predictive model. Yet, precise statistical guarantees, such as false positive rate control, are needed to communicate findings transparently and to avoid unintended consequences in real-world scenarios. In this paper, we formalize the global (i.e., over a population) and local (i.e., for a sample) statistical importance of semantic concepts for the predictions of opaque models, by means of conditional independence, which allows for rigorous testing. We use recent ideas of sequential kernelized testing (SKIT) to induce a rank of importance across concepts, and showcase the effectiveness and flexibility of our framework on synthetic datasets as well as on image classification tasks using vision-language models such as CLIP.

In this work, we present a variety of novel information-theoretic generalization bounds for learning algorithms, from the supersample setting of Steinke & Zakynthinou (2020)-the setting of the "conditional mutual information" framework. Our development exploits projecting the loss pair (obtained from a training instance and a testing instance) down to a single number and correlating loss values with a Rademacher sequence (and its shifted variants). The presented bounds include square-root bounds, fast-rate bounds, including those based on variance and sharpness, and bounds for interpolating algorithms etc. We show theoretically or empirically that these bounds are tighter than all information-theoretic bounds known to date on the same supersample setting.

Standard methods for detecting discontinuities in conditional means are not applicable to outcomes that are complex, non-Euclidean objects like distributions, networks, or covariance matrices. This article develops a nonparametric test for jumps in conditional means when outcomes lie in a non-Euclidean metric space. Using local Fr\'echet regressionx2014which generalizes standard regression to metric-space valued datax2014the method estimates a mean path on either side of a candidate cutoff, extending existing k-sample tests to a flexible regression setting. Key theoretical contributions include a central limit theorem for the local estimator of the conditional Fr\'echet variance and the asymptotic validity and consistency of the proposed test. Simulations confirm nominal size control and robust power in finite samples. Two applications demonstrate the method's value by revealing effects invisible to scalar-based tests. First, I detect a sharp change in work-from-home compositions at Washington State's income threshold for non-compete enforceability during COVID-19, highlighting remote work's role as a bargaining margin. Second, I find that countries restructure their input-output networks after losing preferential US trade access. These findings underscore that analyzing regression functions within their native metric spaces can reveal structural discontinuities that scalar summaries would miss.

Diffusion models, a powerful and universal generative AI technology, have achieved tremendous success in computer vision, audio, reinforcement learning, and computational biology. In these applications, diffusion models provide flexible high-dimensional data modeling, and act as a sampler for generating new samples under active guidance towards task-desired properties. Despite the significant empirical success, theory of diffusion models is very limited, potentially slowing down principled methodological innovations for further harnessing and improving diffusion models. In this paper, we review emerging applications of diffusion models, understanding their sample generation under various controls. Next, we overview the existing theories of diffusion models, covering their statistical properties and sampling capabilities. We adopt a progressive routine, beginning with unconditional diffusion models and connecting to conditional counterparts. Further, we review a new avenue in high-dimensional structured optimization through conditional diffusion models, where searching for solutions is reformulated as a conditional sampling problem and solved by diffusion models. Lastly, we discuss future directions about diffusion models. The purpose of this paper is to provide a well-rounded theoretical exposure for stimulating forward-looking theories and methods of diffusion models.

The surprisingly likely criterion in the seminal work of Prelec (the Bayesian Truth Serum) guarantees truthfulness in a game-theoretic multi-agent setting, by rewarding rational agents to maximise the expected information gain with their answers w.r.t. their probabilistic beliefs. We investigate the relevance of a similar criterion for responses of LLMs. We hypothesize that if the surprisingly likely criterion works in LLMs, under certain conditions, the responses that maximize the reward under this criterion should be more accurate than the responses that only maximize the posterior probability. Using benchmarks including the TruthfulQA benchmark and using openly available LLMs: GPT-2 and LLaMA-2, we show that the method indeed improves the accuracy significantly (for example, upto 24 percentage points aggregate improvement on TruthfulQA and upto 70 percentage points improvement on individual categories of questions).

We introduce Diffusion World Model (DWM), a conditional diffusion model capable of predicting multistep future states and rewards concurrently. As opposed to traditional one-step dynamics models, DWM offers long-horizon predictions in a single forward pass, eliminating the need for recursive quires. We integrate DWM into model-based value estimation, where the short-term return is simulated by future trajectories sampled from DWM. In the context of offline reinforcement learning, DWM can be viewed as a conservative value regularization through generative modeling. Alternatively, it can be seen as a data source that enables offline Q-learning with synthetic data. Our experiments on the D4RL dataset confirm the robustness of DWM to long-horizon simulation. In terms of absolute performance, DWM significantly surpasses one-step dynamics models with a 44% performance gain, and achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Diffusion models have achieved remarkable success in text-to-image synthesis, largely attributed to the use of classifier-free guidance (CFG), which enables high-quality, condition-aligned image generation. CFG combines the conditional score (e.g., text-conditioned) with the unconditional score to control the output. However, the unconditional score is in charge of estimating the transition between manifolds of adjacent timesteps from x_t to x_{t-1}, which may inadvertently interfere with the trajectory toward the specific condition. In this work, we introduce a novel approach that leverages a geometric perspective on the unconditional score to enhance CFG performance when conditional scores are available. Specifically, we propose a method that filters the singular vectors of both conditional and unconditional scores using singular value decomposition. This filtering process aligns the unconditional score with the conditional score, thereby refining the sampling trajectory to stay closer to the manifold. Our approach improves image quality with negligible additional computation. We provide deeper insights into the score function behavior in diffusion models and present a practical technique for achieving more accurate and contextually coherent image synthesis.

Robust generalization under distribution shift remains a key challenge for conditional generative modeling: conditional flow-based methods often fit the training conditions well but fail to extrapolate to unseen ones. We introduce SP-FM, a shortest-path flow-matching framework that improves out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization by conditioning both the base distribution and the flow field on the condition. Specifically, SP-FM learns a condition-dependent base distribution parameterized as a flexible, learnable mixture, together with a condition-dependent vector field trained via shortest-path flow matching. Conditioning the base allows the model to adapt its starting distribution across conditions, enabling smooth interpolation and more reliable extrapolation beyond the observed training range. We provide theoretical insights into the resulting conditional transport and show how mixture-conditioned bases enhance robustness under shift. Empirically, SP-FM is effective across heterogeneous domains, including predicting responses to unseen perturbations in single-cell transcriptomics and modeling treatment effects in high-content microscopy--based drug screening. Overall, SP-FM provides a simple yet effective plug-in strategy for improving conditional generative modeling and OOD generalization across diverse domains.

Conditional time series generation plays a critical role in addressing data scarcity and enabling causal analysis in real-world applications. Despite its increasing importance, the field lacks a standardized and systematic benchmarking framework for evaluating generative models across diverse conditions. To address this gap, we introduce the Conditional Time Series Generation Benchmark (ConTSG-Bench). ConTSG-Bench comprises a large-scale, well-aligned dataset spanning diverse conditioning modalities and levels of semantic abstraction, first enabling systematic evaluation of representative generation methods across these dimensions with a comprehensive suite of metrics for generation fidelity and condition adherence. Both the quantitative benchmarking and in-depth analyses of conditional generation behaviors have revealed the traits and limitations of the current approaches, highlighting critical challenges and promising research directions, particularly with respect to precise structural controllability and downstream task utility under complex conditions.

Conditional contrastive learning frameworks consider the conditional sampling procedure that constructs positive or negative data pairs conditioned on specific variables. Fair contrastive learning constructs negative pairs, for example, from the same gender (conditioning on sensitive information), which in turn reduces undesirable information from the learned representations; weakly supervised contrastive learning constructs positive pairs with similar annotative attributes (conditioning on auxiliary information), which in turn are incorporated into the representations. Although conditional contrastive learning enables many applications, the conditional sampling procedure can be challenging if we cannot obtain sufficient data pairs for some values of the conditioning variable. This paper presents Conditional Contrastive Learning with Kernel (CCL-K) that converts existing conditional contrastive objectives into alternative forms that mitigate the insufficient data problem. Instead of sampling data according to the value of the conditioning variable, CCL-K uses the Kernel Conditional Embedding Operator that samples data from all available data and assigns weights to each sampled data given the kernel similarity between the values of the conditioning variable. We conduct experiments using weakly supervised, fair, and hard negatives contrastive learning, showing CCL-K outperforms state-of-the-art baselines.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown the ability to produce fluent and cogent content, presenting both productivity opportunities and societal risks. To build trustworthy AI systems, it is imperative to distinguish between machine-generated and human-authored content. The leading zero-shot detector, DetectGPT, showcases commendable performance but is marred by its intensive computational costs. In this paper, we introduce the concept of conditional probability curvature to elucidate discrepancies in word choices between LLMs and humans within a given context. Utilizing this curvature as a foundational metric, we present **Fast-DetectGPT**, an optimized zero-shot detector, which substitutes DetectGPT's perturbation step with a more efficient sampling step. Our evaluations on various datasets, source models, and test conditions indicate that Fast-DetectGPT not only surpasses DetectGPT by a relative around 75% in both the white-box and black-box settings but also accelerates the detection process by a factor of 340, as detailed in Table 1. See https://github.com/baoguangsheng/fast-detect-gpt for code, data, and results.

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the benchmark for causal inference, yet field implementation can deviate. We here present a remote audit - a design-based, preregistrable diagnostic that uses only pre-treatment satellite imagery to test whether assignment is independent of local conditions. The conditional randomization test of the remote audit evaluates whether treatment assignment is more predictable from pre-treatment satellite features than expected under the experiment's registered mechanism, providing a finite-sample valid, design-based diagnostic that requires no parametric assumptions. The procedure is finite-sample valid, honors blocks and clusters, and controls multiplicity across image models and resolutions via a max-statistic. We illustrate with two RCTs: Uganda's Youth Opportunities Program, where the audit corroborates randomization and flags selection and missing-data risks; and a school-based trial in Bangladesh, where assignment is highly predictable from pre-treatment features relative to the stated design, consistent with independent concerns about irregularities. Remote audits complement balance tests, lower early-stage costs, and enable rapid design checks when baseline surveys are expensive or infeasible.

AI systems have become increasingly capable of dangerous behaviours in many domains. This raises the question: Do models sometimes choose to violate human instructions in order to perform behaviour that is more useful for certain goals? We introduce a benchmark for measuring model propensity for instrumental convergence (IC) behaviour in terminal-based agents. This is behaviour such as self-preservation that has been hypothesised to play a key role in risks from highly capable AI agents. Our benchmark is realistic and low-stakes which serves to reduce evaluation-awareness and roleplay confounds. The suite contains seven operational tasks, each with an official workflow and a policy-violating shortcut. An eight-variant shared framework varies monitoring, instruction clarity, stakes, permission, instrumental usefulness and blocked honest paths to support inferences regarding the factors driving IC behaviour. We evaluated ten models using deterministic environment-state scorers over 1,680 samples, with trace review employed for audit and adjudication purposes. The final IC rate is 86 out of 1,680 samples (5.1%). IC behaviour is concentrated rather than uniform: two Gemini models account for 66.3% of IC cases and three tasks account for 84.9%. Conditions in which IC behaviour is indispensable for task success result in the greatest increase in the adjusted IC rate (+15.7 percentage points), whereas emphasising that task success is critical or certain framing choices do not produce comparable effects. Our findings indicate that realistic, low-nudge environments elicit IC behaviour rarely but systematically in most tested models. We conclude that it is feasible to robustly measure tendencies for dangerous behaviour in current frontier AI agents.

Beam search is the default decoding strategy for many sequence generation tasks in NLP. The set of approximate K-best items returned by the algorithm is a useful summary of the distribution for many applications; however, the candidates typically exhibit high overlap and may give a highly biased estimate for expectations under our model. These problems can be addressed by instead using stochastic decoding strategies. In this work, we propose a new method for turning beam search into a stochastic process: Conditional Poisson stochastic beam search. Rather than taking the maximizing set at each iteration, we sample K candidates without replacement according to the conditional Poisson sampling design. We view this as a more natural alternative to Kool et. al. 2019's stochastic beam search (SBS). Furthermore, we show how samples generated under the CPSBS design can be used to build consistent estimators and sample diverse sets from sequence models. In our experiments, we observe CPSBS produces lower variance and more efficient estimators than SBS, even showing improvements in high entropy settings.

Analyzing outcomes in long-term cancer survivor studies can be complex. The effects of predictors on the failure process may be difficult to assess over longer periods of time, as the commonly used assumption of proportionality of hazards holding over an extended period is often questionable. In this manuscript, we compare seven different survival models that estimate the hazard rate and the effects of proportional and non-proportional covariates. In particular, we focus on an extension of the the multi-resolution hazard (MRH) estimator, combining a non-proportional hierarchical MRH approach with a data-driven pruning algorithm that allows for computational efficiency and produces robust estimates even in times of few observed failures. Using data from a large-scale randomized prostate cancer clinical trial, we examine patterns of biochemical failure and estimate the time-varying effects of androgen deprivation therapy treatment and other covariates. We compare the impact of different modeling strategies and smoothness assumptions on the estimated treatment effect. Our results show that the benefits of treatment diminish over time, possibly with implications for future treatment protocols.

Although the existing causal inference literature focuses on the forward-looking perspective by estimating effects of causes, the backward-looking perspective can provide insights into causes of effects. In backward-looking causal inference, the probability of necessity measures the probability that a certain event is caused by the treatment given the observed treatment and outcome. Most existing results focus on binary outcomes. Motivated by applications with ordinal outcomes, we propose a general definition of the probability of necessity. However, identifying the probability of necessity is challenging because it involves the joint distribution of the potential outcomes. We propose a novel assumption of monotonic incremental treatment effect to identify the probability of necessity with ordinal outcomes. We also discuss the testable implications of this key identification assumption. When it fails, we derive explicit formulas of the sharp large-sample bounds on the probability of necessity.

Discrete diffusion models with absorbing processes have shown promise in language modeling. The key quantities to be estimated are the ratios between the marginal probabilities of two transitive states at all timesteps, called the concrete score. In this paper, we reveal that the concrete score in absorbing diffusion can be expressed as conditional probabilities of clean data, multiplied by a time-dependent scalar in an analytic form. Motivated by this finding, we propose reparameterized absorbing discrete diffusion (RADD), a dedicated diffusion model without time-condition that characterizes the time-independent conditional probabilities. Besides its simplicity, RADD can reduce the number of function evaluations (NFEs) by caching the output of the time-independent network when the noisy sample remains unchanged in a sampling interval. Empirically, RADD is up to 3.5 times faster while achieving similar performance with the strongest baseline. Built upon the new perspective of conditional distributions, we further unify absorbing discrete diffusion and any-order autoregressive models (AO-ARMs), showing that the upper bound on the negative log-likelihood for the diffusion model can be interpreted as an expected negative log-likelihood for AO-ARMs. Further, our RADD models achieve SOTA performance among diffusion models on 5 zero-shot language modeling benchmarks (measured by perplexity) at the GPT-2 scale. Our code is available at https://github.com/ML-GSAI/RADD.

Purpose. Patients with advanced cancer may undergo multiple lines of treatment, switching therapies as their disease progresses. Motivated by a study of metastatic prostate cancer, we develop a microsimulation framework to study therapy sequence. Methods. We propose a discrete-time state transition model to study two lines of anti-cancer therapy. Based on digitized published progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) curves, we infer event types (progression or death), and estimate transition probabilities using cumulative incidence functions with competing risks. Our model incorporates within-patient dependence over time, such that response to first-line therapy informs subsequent event probabilities. Parameters governing the degree of within-patient dependence can be used to calibrate the model-based results to those of a target trial. We demonstrate these methods in a study of two therapy sequences for metastatic prostate cancer, where Docetaxel (DCT) and Abiraterone Acetate (AA) are both appropriate for use in either first or second line treatment. We assess costs, Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) and Incremental Cost Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) for two treatment strategies: DCT then AA vs AA then DCT. Results. Using digitized survival curves from relevant clinical trials, we identified 8.6-13.9% of PFS times that should be categorized as deaths, allowing for estimation of cumulative incidence functions. Models assuming within-patient independence overestimated OS time, corrected with our calibration approach. Correction resulted in meaningful changes in the difference in QALYs between treatment strategies (0.07 vs 0.15) and the ICER (-\76,836/QALY vs -21,030/QALY). Conclusions. Microsimulation models can be successfully used to study cost-effectiveness of therapy sequences, taking care to account correctly for within-patient dependence.

Survival analysis can sometimes involve individuals who will not experience the event of interest, forming what is known as the cured group. Identifying such individuals is not always possible beforehand, as they provide only right-censored data. Ignoring the presence of the cured group can introduce bias in the final model. This paper presents a method for estimating a semiparametric additive hazards model that accounts for the cured fraction. Unlike regression coefficients in a hazard ratio model, those in an additive hazard model measure hazard differences. The proposed method uses a primal-dual interior point algorithm to obtain constrained maximum penalized likelihood estimates of the model parameters, including the regression coefficients and the baseline hazard, subject to certain non-negativity constraints.

Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef, or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on temporal and spatial scales that can be difficult to approach by experimental manipulation, research has often relied on historical observations as a source of natural experiments. Here we examine a critical difference between selecting systems for study based on the fact that we have observed a critical transition and those systems for which we wish to forecast the approach of a transition. This difference arises by conditionally selecting systems known to experience a transition of some sort and failing to account for the bias this introduces -- a statistical error often known as the Prosecutor's Fallacy. By analysing simulated systems that have experienced transitions purely by chance, we reveal an elevated rate of false positives in common warning signal statistics. We further demonstrate a model-based approach that is less subject to this bias than these more commonly used summary statistics. We note that experimental studies with replicates avoid this pitfall entirely.

We present a state-of-the-art model for fine-grained probability estimation of propositions conditioned on context. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have significantly enhanced their reasoning capabilities, particularly on well-defined tasks with complete information. However, LLMs continue to struggle with making accurate and well-calibrated probabilistic predictions under uncertainty or partial information. While incorporating uncertainty into model predictions often boosts performance, obtaining reliable estimates of that uncertainty remains understudied. In particular, LLM probability estimates tend to be coarse and biased towards more frequent numbers. Through a combination of human and synthetic data creation and assessment, scaling to larger models, and better supervision, we propose a set of strong and precise probability estimation models. We conduct systematic evaluations across tasks that rely on conditional probability estimation and show that our approach consistently outperforms existing fine-tuned and prompting-based methods by a large margin.

Many empirical studies of labor market questions rely on estimating relatively simple predictive models using small, carefully constructed longitudinal survey datasets based on hand-engineered features. Large Language Models (LLMs), trained on massive datasets, encode vast quantities of world knowledge and can be used for the next job prediction problem. However, while an off-the-shelf LLM produces plausible career trajectories when prompted, the probability with which an LLM predicts a particular job transition conditional on career history will not, in general, align with the true conditional probability in a given population. Recently, Vafa et al. (2024) introduced a transformer-based "foundation model", CAREER, trained using a large, unrepresentative resume dataset, that predicts transitions between jobs; it further demonstrated how transfer learning techniques can be used to leverage the foundation model to build better predictive models of both transitions and wages that reflect conditional transition probabilities found in nationally representative survey datasets. This paper considers an alternative where the fine-tuning of the CAREER foundation model is replaced by fine-tuning LLMs. For the task of next job prediction, we demonstrate that models trained with our approach outperform several alternatives in terms of predictive performance on the survey data, including traditional econometric models, CAREER, and LLMs with in-context learning, even though the LLM can in principle predict job titles that are not allowed in the survey data. Further, we show that our fine-tuned LLM-based models' predictions are more representative of the career trajectories of various workforce subpopulations than off-the-shelf LLM models and CAREER. We conduct experiments and analyses that highlight the sources of the gains in the performance of our models for representative predictions.

A trustworthy real-world prediction system should produce well-calibrated confidence scores; that is, its confidence in an answer should be indicative of the likelihood that the answer is correct, enabling deferral to an expert in cases of low-confidence predictions. Recent studies have shown that unsupervised pre-training produces large language models (LMs) whose conditional probabilities are remarkably well-calibrated. However, the most widely-used LMs are fine-tuned with reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF-LMs), and some studies have suggested that RLHF-LMs produce conditional probabilities that are very poorly calibrated. In light of this perceived weakness, we conduct a broad evaluation of methods for extracting confidence scores from RLHF-LMs. For RLHF-LMs such as ChatGPT, GPT-4, and Claude, we find that verbalized confidences emitted as output tokens are typically better-calibrated than the model's conditional probabilities on the TriviaQA, SciQ, and TruthfulQA benchmarks, often reducing the expected calibration error by a relative 50%.

We present Natural Gradient Boosting (NGBoost), an algorithm for generic probabilistic prediction via gradient boosting. Typical regression models return a point estimate, conditional on covariates, but probabilistic regression models output a full probability distribution over the outcome space, conditional on the covariates. This allows for predictive uncertainty estimation -- crucial in applications like healthcare and weather forecasting. NGBoost generalizes gradient boosting to probabilistic regression by treating the parameters of the conditional distribution as targets for a multiparameter boosting algorithm. Furthermore, we show how the Natural Gradient is required to correct the training dynamics of our multiparameter boosting approach. NGBoost can be used with any base learner, any family of distributions with continuous parameters, and any scoring rule. NGBoost matches or exceeds the performance of existing methods for probabilistic prediction while offering additional benefits in flexibility, scalability, and usability. An open-source implementation is available at github.com/stanfordmlgroup/ngboost.

The capacity of a neural network to absorb information is limited by its number of parameters. Conditional computation, where parts of the network are active on a per-example basis, has been proposed in theory as a way of dramatically increasing model capacity without a proportional increase in computation. In practice, however, there are significant algorithmic and performance challenges. In this work, we address these challenges and finally realize the promise of conditional computation, achieving greater than 1000x improvements in model capacity with only minor losses in computational efficiency on modern GPU clusters. We introduce a Sparsely-Gated Mixture-of-Experts layer (MoE), consisting of up to thousands of feed-forward sub-networks. A trainable gating network determines a sparse combination of these experts to use for each example. We apply the MoE to the tasks of language modeling and machine translation, where model capacity is critical for absorbing the vast quantities of knowledge available in the training corpora. We present model architectures in which a MoE with up to 137 billion parameters is applied convolutionally between stacked LSTM layers. On large language modeling and machine translation benchmarks, these models achieve significantly better results than state-of-the-art at lower computational cost.

Personalized treatment effect estimates are often of interest in high-stakes applications -- thus, before deploying a model estimating such effects in practice, one needs to be sure that the best candidate from the ever-growing machine learning toolbox for this task was chosen. Unfortunately, due to the absence of counterfactual information in practice, it is usually not possible to rely on standard validation metrics for doing so, leading to a well-known model selection dilemma in the treatment effect estimation literature. While some solutions have recently been investigated, systematic understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of different model selection criteria is still lacking. In this paper, instead of attempting to declare a global `winner', we therefore empirically investigate success- and failure modes of different selection criteria. We highlight that there is a complex interplay between selection strategies, candidate estimators and the data used for comparing them, and provide interesting insights into the relative (dis)advantages of different criteria alongside desiderata for the design of further illuminating empirical studies in this context.

LLMs are often trained with RL from human or AI feedback, yet such methods typically compress nuanced feedback into scalar rewards, discarding much of their richness and inducing scale imbalance. We propose treating verbal feedback as a conditioning signal. Inspired by language priors in text-to-image generation, which enable novel outputs from unseen prompts, we introduce the feedback-conditional policy (FCP). FCP learns directly from response-feedback pairs, approximating the feedback-conditional posterior through maximum likelihood training on offline data. We further develop an online bootstrapping stage where the policy generates under positive conditions and receives fresh feedback to refine itself. This reframes feedback-driven learning as conditional generation rather than reward optimization, offering a more expressive way for LLMs to directly learn from verbal feedback. Our code is available at https://github.com/sail-sg/feedback-conditional-policy.

Recently, a myriad of conditional image generation and editing models have been developed to serve different downstream tasks, including text-to-image generation, text-guided image editing, subject-driven image generation, control-guided image generation, etc. However, we observe huge inconsistencies in experimental conditions: datasets, inference, and evaluation metrics - render fair comparisons difficult. This paper proposes ImagenHub, which is a one-stop library to standardize the inference and evaluation of all the conditional image generation models. Firstly, we define seven prominent tasks and curate high-quality evaluation datasets for them. Secondly, we built a unified inference pipeline to ensure fair comparison. Thirdly, we design two human evaluation scores, i.e. Semantic Consistency and Perceptual Quality, along with comprehensive guidelines to evaluate generated images. We train expert raters to evaluate the model outputs based on the proposed metrics. Our human evaluation achieves a high inter-worker agreement of Krippendorff's alpha on 76% models with a value higher than 0.4. We comprehensively evaluated a total of around 30 models and observed three key takeaways: (1) the existing models' performance is generally unsatisfying except for Text-guided Image Generation and Subject-driven Image Generation, with 74% models achieving an overall score lower than 0.5. (2) we examined the claims from published papers and found 83% of them hold with a few exceptions. (3) None of the existing automatic metrics has a Spearman's correlation higher than 0.2 except subject-driven image generation. Moving forward, we will continue our efforts to evaluate newly published models and update our leaderboard to keep track of the progress in conditional image generation.

The imputation of missing values in time series has many applications in healthcare and finance. While autoregressive models are natural candidates for time series imputation, score-based diffusion models have recently outperformed existing counterparts including autoregressive models in many tasks such as image generation and audio synthesis, and would be promising for time series imputation. In this paper, we propose Conditional Score-based Diffusion models for Imputation (CSDI), a novel time series imputation method that utilizes score-based diffusion models conditioned on observed data. Unlike existing score-based approaches, the conditional diffusion model is explicitly trained for imputation and can exploit correlations between observed values. On healthcare and environmental data, CSDI improves by 40-65% over existing probabilistic imputation methods on popular performance metrics. In addition, deterministic imputation by CSDI reduces the error by 5-20% compared to the state-of-the-art deterministic imputation methods. Furthermore, CSDI can also be applied to time series interpolation and probabilistic forecasting, and is competitive with existing baselines. The code is available at https://github.com/ermongroup/CSDI.

The approval success rate of drug candidates is very low with the majority of failure due to safety and efficacy. Increasingly available high dimensional information on targets, drug molecules and indications provides an opportunity for ML methods to integrate multiple data modalities and better predict clinically promising drug targets. Notably, drug targets with human genetics evidence are shown to have better odds to succeed. However, a recent tensor factorization-based approach found that additional information on targets and indications might not necessarily improve the predictive accuracy. Here we revisit this approach by integrating different types of human genetics evidence collated from publicly available sources to support each target-indication pair. We use Bayesian tensor factorization to show that models incorporating all available human genetics evidence (rare disease, gene burden, common disease) modestly improves the clinical outcome prediction over models using single line of genetics evidence. We provide additional insight into the relative predictive power of different types of human genetics evidence for predicting the success of clinical outcomes.

Data collection is often difficult in critical fields such as medicine, physics, and chemistry. As a result, classification methods usually perform poorly with these small datasets, leading to weak predictive performance. Increasing the training set with additional synthetic data, similar to data augmentation in images, is commonly believed to improve downstream classification performance. However, current tabular generative methods that learn either the joint distribution p(x, y) or the class-conditional distribution p(x mid y) often overfit on small datasets, resulting in poor-quality synthetic data, usually worsening classification performance compared to using real data alone. To solve these challenges, we introduce TabEBM, a novel class-conditional generative method using Energy-Based Models (EBMs). Unlike existing methods that use a shared model to approximate all class-conditional densities, our key innovation is to create distinct EBM generative models for each class, each modelling its class-specific data distribution individually. This approach creates robust energy landscapes, even in ambiguous class distributions. Our experiments show that TabEBM generates synthetic data with higher quality and better statistical fidelity than existing methods. When used for data augmentation, our synthetic data consistently improves the classification performance across diverse datasets of various sizes, especially small ones. Code is available at https://github.com/andreimargeloiu/TabEBM.

A central aspect of machine learning research is experimentation, the process of designing and running experiments, analyzing the results, and iterating towards some positive outcome (e.g., improving accuracy). Could agents driven by powerful language models perform machine learning experimentation effectively? To answer this question, we introduce MLAgentBench, a suite of 13 tasks ranging from improving model performance on CIFAR-10 to recent research problems like BabyLM. For each task, an agent can perform actions like reading/writing files, executing code, and inspecting outputs. We then construct an agent that can perform ML experimentation based on ReAct framework. We benchmark agents based on Claude v1.0, Claude v2.1, Claude v3 Opus, GPT-4, GPT-4-turbo, Gemini-Pro, and Mixtral and find that a Claude v3 Opus agent is the best in terms of success rate. It can build compelling ML models over many tasks in MLAgentBench with 37.5% average success rate. Our agents also display highly interpretable plans and actions. However, the success rates vary considerably; they span from 100% on well-established older datasets to as low as 0% on recent Kaggle challenges created potentially after the underlying LM was trained. Finally, we identify several key challenges for LM-based agents such as long-term planning and reducing hallucination. Our code is released at https://github.com/snap-stanford/MLAgentBench.

We consider the problem of weakly supervised object detection, where the training samples are annotated using only image-level labels that indicate the presence or absence of an object category. In order to model the uncertainty in the location of the objects, we employ a dissimilarity coefficient based probabilistic learning objective. The learning objective minimizes the difference between an annotation agnostic prediction distribution and an annotation aware conditional distribution. The main computational challenge is the complex nature of the conditional distribution, which consists of terms over hundreds or thousands of variables. The complexity of the conditional distribution rules out the possibility of explicitly modeling it. Instead, we exploit the fact that deep learning frameworks rely on stochastic optimization. This allows us to use a state of the art discrete generative model that can provide annotation consistent samples from the conditional distribution. Extensive experiments on PASCAL VOC 2007 and 2012 data sets demonstrate the efficacy of our proposed approach.